Recent forecasts from models and the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) indicate clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation under a stable high-pressure system will drive Madrid’s August 31 maximum into the low-to-mid 30s °C. Current observations on the 30th reached 32–33 °C at urban stations, with similar synoptic conditions persisting; dry continental air and minimal cloud cover favor efficient surface heating while preventing significant moisture-driven moderation. Historical late-August averages hover near 30–32 °C, so the market’s heavy weighting toward 34 °C (61.5 %) and 35 °C (21.5 %) reflects model consensus on modest above-normal warmth, while the 18.5 % on 33 °C accounts for minor forecast spread in afternoon peak timing or local urban-heat effects. No major shifts in guidance have occurred in the past 48 hours.