Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum of 29–31 °C in Istanbul on August 18 under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions with mostly sunny skies. This consensus, consistent with climatological August highs near 28–30 °C, positions 30 °C as the market leader at 44.5 % implied probability, followed by 31 °C at 23.0 % and 29 °C at 21.5 %. Minor model spread around steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects supports the tight clustering, while low probabilities for extremes reflect the absence of anomalous heat or blocking highs in recent runs. Updated guidance later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
30°C 45%
31°C 24%
29°C 22%
28°C 7%
НОВЕ
$28,331 Обс.
НОВЕ
$28,331 Обс.
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
7%
29°C
22%
30°C
45%
31°C
24%
32°C
7%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 45%
31°C 24%
29°C 22%
28°C 7%
НОВЕ
$28,331 Обс.
НОВЕ
$28,331 Обс.
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
$292 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$1,140 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$864 Обс.
1%
27°C
$1,694 Обс.
2%
28°C
$2,378 Обс.
7%
29°C
$5,039 Обс.
22%
30°C
$4,572 Обс.
45%
31°C
$5,813 Обс.
24%
32°C
$2,895 Обс.
7%
33°C
$1,769 Обс.
1%
34°C or higher
$1,875 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum of 29–31 °C in Istanbul on August 18 under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions with mostly sunny skies. This consensus, consistent with climatological August highs near 28–30 °C, positions 30 °C as the market leader at 44.5 % implied probability, followed by 31 °C at 23.0 % and 29 °C at 21.5 %. Minor model spread around steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects supports the tight clustering, while low probabilities for extremes reflect the absence of anomalous heat or blocking highs in recent runs. Updated guidance later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$28,331Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum of 29–31 °C in Istanbul on August 18 under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions with mostly sunny skies. This consensus, consistent with climatological August highs near 28–30 °C, positions 30 °C as the market leader at 44.5 % implied probability, followed by 31 °C at 23.0 % and 29 °C at 21.5 %. Minor model spread around steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects supports the tight clustering, while low probabilities for extremes reflect the absence of anomalous heat or blocking highs in recent runs. Updated guidance later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$28,331Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate a maximum of 29–31 °C in Istanbul on August 18 under typical late-summer Mediterranean conditions with mostly sunny skies. This consensus, consistent with climatological August highs near 28–30 °C, positions 30 °C as the market leader at 44.5 % implied probability, followed by 31 °C at 23.0 % and 29 °C at 21.5 %. Minor model spread around steering patterns and local sea-breeze effects supports the tight clustering, while low probabilities for extremes reflect the absence of anomalous heat or blocking highs in recent runs. Updated guidance later today could refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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