Recent forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS guidance, indicate a maximum temperature near 27–28°C for Istanbul on August 19, aligning closely with the market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at roughly 82.5% combined probability. Persistent northeasterly flow and moderate humidity are limiting daytime boundary-layer warming below the long-term mid-August climatological average of 28–29°C, with mostly sunny conditions and light winds preventing stronger insolation-driven spikes. Ensemble spreads show low likelihood of exceeding 29°C absent an unexpected ridge shift, while sub-26°C readings remain possible only with stronger marine influence or increased cloud cover. Official resolution will depend on the highest hourly observation at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), with updated model runs over the next 48 hours providing the primary catalyst for any probability shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 19?
27°C 51%
28°C 32%
26°C 12%
29°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
3%
26°C
12%
27°C
51%
28°C
32%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 51%
28°C 32%
26°C 12%
29°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 19, 2026
23°C or below
$153 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$178 Обс.
1%
25°C
$90 Обс.
3%
26°C
$255 Обс.
12%
27°C
$2,321 Обс.
51%
28°C
$539 Обс.
32%
29°C
$227 Обс.
6%
30°C
$114 Обс.
3%
31°C
$223 Обс.
1%
32°C
$270 Обс.
<1%
33°C or higher
$84 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS guidance, indicate a maximum temperature near 27–28°C for Istanbul on August 19, aligning closely with the market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at roughly 82.5% combined probability. Persistent northeasterly flow and moderate humidity are limiting daytime boundary-layer warming below the long-term mid-August climatological average of 28–29°C, with mostly sunny conditions and light winds preventing stronger insolation-driven spikes. Ensemble spreads show low likelihood of exceeding 29°C absent an unexpected ridge shift, while sub-26°C readings remain possible only with stronger marine influence or increased cloud cover. Official resolution will depend on the highest hourly observation at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), with updated model runs over the next 48 hours providing the primary catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,455Дата завершення
Aug 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS guidance, indicate a maximum temperature near 27–28°C for Istanbul on August 19, aligning closely with the market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at roughly 82.5% combined probability. Persistent northeasterly flow and moderate humidity are limiting daytime boundary-layer warming below the long-term mid-August climatological average of 28–29°C, with mostly sunny conditions and light winds preventing stronger insolation-driven spikes. Ensemble spreads show low likelihood of exceeding 29°C absent an unexpected ridge shift, while sub-26°C readings remain possible only with stronger marine influence or increased cloud cover. Official resolution will depend on the highest hourly observation at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), with updated model runs over the next 48 hours providing the primary catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,455Дата завершення
Aug 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS guidance, indicate a maximum temperature near 27–28°C for Istanbul on August 19, aligning closely with the market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at roughly 82.5% combined probability. Persistent northeasterly flow and moderate humidity are limiting daytime boundary-layer warming below the long-term mid-August climatological average of 28–29°C, with mostly sunny conditions and light winds preventing stronger insolation-driven spikes. Ensemble spreads show low likelihood of exceeding 29°C absent an unexpected ridge shift, while sub-26°C readings remain possible only with stronger marine influence or increased cloud cover. Official resolution will depend on the highest hourly observation at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), with updated model runs over the next 48 hours providing the primary catalyst for any probability shifts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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