Cool southerly flows advecting polar maritime air masses are the dominant driver keeping Wellington’s August 18 maximum most likely near 11 °C, with MetService guidance explicitly forecasting a 10–11 °C high under strengthening southwesterlies and passing showers. NIWA’s seasonal outlook places central New Zealand temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August climatology of ~12 °C, while recent days under similar intrusions have verified at 10–11 °C. Model consensus and historical analogs support only modest warming potential, limiting the implied probability of 13 °C or higher to single digits; any northward shift in the steering flow or delayed frontal passage would be required to push the outcome upward.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
12°C 85%
13°C 12.4%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
НОВЕ
$58,471 Обс.
НОВЕ
$58,471 Обс.
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
85%
13°C
12%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 85%
13°C 12.4%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
НОВЕ
$58,471 Обс.
НОВЕ
$58,471 Обс.
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
$339 Обс.
<1%
7°C
$850 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$1,498 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$3,896 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$10,604 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$14,541 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$16,078 Обс.
85%
13°C
$6,943 Обс.
12%
14°C
$3,849 Обс.
<1%
15°C
$3,721 Обс.
<1%
16°C or higher
$1,836 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cool southerly flows advecting polar maritime air masses are the dominant driver keeping Wellington’s August 18 maximum most likely near 11 °C, with MetService guidance explicitly forecasting a 10–11 °C high under strengthening southwesterlies and passing showers. NIWA’s seasonal outlook places central New Zealand temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August climatology of ~12 °C, while recent days under similar intrusions have verified at 10–11 °C. Model consensus and historical analogs support only modest warming potential, limiting the implied probability of 13 °C or higher to single digits; any northward shift in the steering flow or delayed frontal passage would be required to push the outcome upward.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$58,471Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cool southerly flows advecting polar maritime air masses are the dominant driver keeping Wellington’s August 18 maximum most likely near 11 °C, with MetService guidance explicitly forecasting a 10–11 °C high under strengthening southwesterlies and passing showers. NIWA’s seasonal outlook places central New Zealand temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August climatology of ~12 °C, while recent days under similar intrusions have verified at 10–11 °C. Model consensus and historical analogs support only modest warming potential, limiting the implied probability of 13 °C or higher to single digits; any northward shift in the steering flow or delayed frontal passage would be required to push the outcome upward.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$58,471Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cool southerly flows advecting polar maritime air masses are the dominant driver keeping Wellington’s August 18 maximum most likely near 11 °C, with MetService guidance explicitly forecasting a 10–11 °C high under strengthening southwesterlies and passing showers. NIWA’s seasonal outlook places central New Zealand temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August climatology of ~12 °C, while recent days under similar intrusions have verified at 10–11 °C. Model consensus and historical analogs support only modest warming potential, limiting the implied probability of 13 °C or higher to single digits; any northward shift in the steering flow or delayed frontal passage would be required to push the outcome upward.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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