Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 62%
40-59 18%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
ใหม่
$13,861 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$13,861 ปริมาณ
Sep 6, 2026
<20
14%
20-39
62%
40-59
18%
60-79
7%
80+
1%
20-39 62%
40-59 18%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
ใหม่
$13,861 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$13,861 ปริมาณ
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$682 ปริมาณ
14%
20-39
$11,684 ปริมาณ
62%
40-59
$1,025 ปริมาณ
18%
60-79
$230 ปริมาณ
7%
80+
$240 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,861วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,861วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย