Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command changes required for such an operation. Recent developments center on Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in early August 2026, which tested reservist mobilization, arms relocation, anti-blockade measures, and drone integration, alongside China’s live-fire drills in the Strait during July and routine air and maritime activity that remains below prior peaks. Beijing continues coercive pressure through maritime jurisdiction assertions and diplomatic signaling while prioritizing economic and political channels. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention, combined with ongoing PLA readiness gaps, reinforce the current trader consensus. Late-breaking shifts could still stem from miscalculation during drills or abrupt policy changes, though structural and timing barriers limit those risks before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
$39,753,980 ปริมาณ
$39,753,980 ปริมาณ
ใช่
$39,753,980 ปริมาณ
$39,753,980 ปริมาณ
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command changes required for such an operation. Recent developments center on Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises in early August 2026, which tested reservist mobilization, arms relocation, anti-blockade measures, and drone integration, alongside China’s live-fire drills in the Strait during July and routine air and maritime activity that remains below prior peaks. Beijing continues coercive pressure through maritime jurisdiction assertions and diplomatic signaling while prioritizing economic and political channels. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention, combined with ongoing PLA readiness gaps, reinforce the current trader consensus. Late-breaking shifts could still stem from miscalculation during drills or abrupt policy changes, though structural and timing barriers limit those risks before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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