Traders assign a 92.8% probability to no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 because Beijing has continued prioritizing gray-zone coercion, maritime pressure, and live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait over the visible amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring required for a major offensive. Recent months featured Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups, drone integration, and supply resilience alongside Chinese naval activity and law-enforcement measures in the strait, yet U.S. assessments note only steady but uneven PLA progress on invasion-related capabilities. Scheduled U.S.-China leader meetings, Beijing’s reframing around Taiwan’s 2028 elections, and the absence of large-scale preparations reinforce the market consensus that full-scale action remains improbable within the narrow remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,219,323 ปริมาณ
$3,219,323 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,219,323 ปริมาณ
$3,219,323 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.8% probability to no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 because Beijing has continued prioritizing gray-zone coercion, maritime pressure, and live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait over the visible amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring required for a major offensive. Recent months featured Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups, drone integration, and supply resilience alongside Chinese naval activity and law-enforcement measures in the strait, yet U.S. assessments note only steady but uneven PLA progress on invasion-related capabilities. Scheduled U.S.-China leader meetings, Beijing’s reframing around Taiwan’s 2028 elections, and the absence of large-scale preparations reinforce the market consensus that full-scale action remains improbable within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,219,323วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.8% probability to no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 because Beijing has continued prioritizing gray-zone coercion, maritime pressure, and live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait over the visible amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring required for a major offensive. Recent months featured Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups, drone integration, and supply resilience alongside Chinese naval activity and law-enforcement measures in the strait, yet U.S. assessments note only steady but uneven PLA progress on invasion-related capabilities. Scheduled U.S.-China leader meetings, Beijing’s reframing around Taiwan’s 2028 elections, and the absence of large-scale preparations reinforce the market consensus that full-scale action remains improbable within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,219,323วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.8% probability to no China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 because Beijing has continued prioritizing gray-zone coercion, maritime pressure, and live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait over the visible amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring required for a major offensive. Recent months featured Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises testing reservist call-ups, drone integration, and supply resilience alongside Chinese naval activity and law-enforcement measures in the strait, yet U.S. assessments note only steady but uneven PLA progress on invasion-related capabilities. Scheduled U.S.-China leader meetings, Beijing’s reframing around Taiwan’s 2028 elections, and the absence of large-scale preparations reinforce the market consensus that full-scale action remains improbable within the narrow remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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