**Ongoing Houthi attacks and selective routing have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near recent weekly levels of roughly 200–270 AIS-visible crossings.** Recent MarineTraffic and 7SEAS 360 data show 223–269 crossings in mid-to-late August weeks, with AIS-trackable volumes flattening around 223 for 10–16 August after a post-20 July blockade drop. Attacks on the Saudi tanker Amzan (24 August) and cargo ship Tihamah (11 August, six fatalities) have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and case-by-case insurance for Saudi-linked tonnage, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional despite top lines resuming select services. This dynamic favors the 190–209 and 170–189 buckets as trader consensus reflects stabilized but sub-pre-crisis flows, with dark transits and tanker caution capping upside while preventing a sharper collapse. Proximity to the August 31 week adds near-term resolution focus around these levels.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
190-209 44%
170-189 33%
230+ 14%
210-229 10%
ใหม่
$24,177 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$24,177 ปริมาณ
Sep 6, 2026
<170
2%
170-189
33%
190-209
44%
210-229
10%
230+
14%
190-209 44%
170-189 33%
230+ 14%
210-229 10%
ใหม่
$24,177 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$24,177 ปริมาณ
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$116 ปริมาณ
2%
170-189
$116 ปริมาณ
33%
190-209
$1,910 ปริมาณ
44%
210-229
$8,983 ปริมาณ
10%
230+
$13,051 ปริมาณ
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi attacks and selective routing have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near recent weekly levels of roughly 200–270 AIS-visible crossings.**
Recent MarineTraffic and 7SEAS 360 data show 223–269 crossings in mid-to-late August weeks, with AIS-trackable volumes flattening around 223 for 10–16 August after a post-20 July blockade drop. Attacks on the Saudi tanker Amzan (24 August) and cargo ship Tihamah (11 August, six fatalities) have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and case-by-case insurance for Saudi-linked tonnage, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional despite top lines resuming select services.
This dynamic favors the 190–209 and 170–189 buckets as trader consensus reflects stabilized but sub-pre-crisis flows, with dark transits and tanker caution capping upside while preventing a sharper collapse. Proximity to the August 31 week adds near-term resolution focus around these levels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,177วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Ongoing Houthi attacks and selective routing have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near recent weekly levels of roughly 200–270 AIS-visible crossings.**
Recent MarineTraffic and 7SEAS 360 data show 223–269 crossings in mid-to-late August weeks, with AIS-trackable volumes flattening around 223 for 10–16 August after a post-20 July blockade drop. Attacks on the Saudi tanker Amzan (24 August) and cargo ship Tihamah (11 August, six fatalities) have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and case-by-case insurance for Saudi-linked tonnage, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional despite top lines resuming select services.
This dynamic favors the 190–209 and 170–189 buckets as trader consensus reflects stabilized but sub-pre-crisis flows, with dark transits and tanker caution capping upside while preventing a sharper collapse. Proximity to the August 31 week adds near-term resolution focus around these levels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$24,177วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing Houthi attacks and selective routing have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near recent weekly levels of roughly 200–270 AIS-visible crossings.** Recent MarineTraffic and 7SEAS 360 data show 223–269 crossings in mid-to-late August weeks, with AIS-trackable volumes flattening around 223 for 10–16 August after a post-20 July blockade drop. Attacks on the Saudi tanker Amzan (24 August) and cargo ship Tihamah (11 August, six fatalities) have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and case-by-case insurance for Saudi-linked tonnage, prompting carriers to treat Suez routings as conditional despite top lines resuming select services. This dynamic favors the 190–209 and 170–189 buckets as trader consensus reflects stabilized but sub-pre-crisis flows, with dark transits and tanker caution capping upside while preventing a sharper collapse. Proximity to the August 31 week adds near-term resolution focus around these levels.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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