Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial transits, with recent daily counts averaging 6–16 vessels amid volatile sentiment, competing territorial claims, and a shift toward Iranian-controlled or dark routes. Shipping data through mid-August shows persistent restrictions, including IRGC activity and limited use of the Omani corridor, keeping weekly volumes far below pre-crisis norms of roughly 700+ transits. Market-implied odds favor 25–49 ships for the week of August 24 as traders price in sustained disruption without near-term de-escalation, while the 31.5% probability on fewer than 25 reflects risks of further seizures or blockades. Upcoming catalysts include any fresh diplomatic signals or military moves that could alter routing incentives before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 55%
<25 32%
50-74 8%
75-99 2.4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 30, 2026
<25
32%
25-49
55%
50-74
8%
75-99
2%
100+
2%
25-49 55%
<25 32%
50-74 8%
75-99 2.4%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$330 ปริมาณ
32%
25-49
$355 ปริมาณ
55%
50-74
$71 ปริมาณ
8%
75-99
$109 ปริมาณ
2%
100+
$62 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial transits, with recent daily counts averaging 6–16 vessels amid volatile sentiment, competing territorial claims, and a shift toward Iranian-controlled or dark routes. Shipping data through mid-August shows persistent restrictions, including IRGC activity and limited use of the Omani corridor, keeping weekly volumes far below pre-crisis norms of roughly 700+ transits. Market-implied odds favor 25–49 ships for the week of August 24 as traders price in sustained disruption without near-term de-escalation, while the 31.5% probability on fewer than 25 reflects risks of further seizures or blockades. Upcoming catalysts include any fresh diplomatic signals or military moves that could alter routing incentives before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$926วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial transits, with recent daily counts averaging 6–16 vessels amid volatile sentiment, competing territorial claims, and a shift toward Iranian-controlled or dark routes. Shipping data through mid-August shows persistent restrictions, including IRGC activity and limited use of the Omani corridor, keeping weekly volumes far below pre-crisis norms of roughly 700+ transits. Market-implied odds favor 25–49 ships for the week of August 24 as traders price in sustained disruption without near-term de-escalation, while the 31.5% probability on fewer than 25 reflects risks of further seizures or blockades. Upcoming catalysts include any fresh diplomatic signals or military moves that could alter routing incentives before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$926วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 continue to suppress commercial transits, with recent daily counts averaging 6–16 vessels amid volatile sentiment, competing territorial claims, and a shift toward Iranian-controlled or dark routes. Shipping data through mid-August shows persistent restrictions, including IRGC activity and limited use of the Omani corridor, keeping weekly volumes far below pre-crisis norms of roughly 700+ transits. Market-implied odds favor 25–49 ships for the week of August 24 as traders price in sustained disruption without near-term de-escalation, while the 31.5% probability on fewer than 25 reflects risks of further seizures or blockades. Upcoming catalysts include any fresh diplomatic signals or military moves that could alter routing incentives before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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