**Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions on Saudi-linked vessels have driven Bab el-Mandeb traffic sharply lower since mid-July 2026, creating the tight clustering around the 160–199 ship range for the August 17 week.** Kpler and other shipping data show weekly transits falling from roughly 350 pre-blockade to the 266–269 level by late July and early August, with daily crossings often in the 11–40 vessel range amid threats, selective attacks, and rerouting incentives. This places the market-implied distribution squarely in line with observed post-embargo volumes while leaving room for modest week-to-week variance. The near-even split between the 180–199 and 160–179 bins reflects uncertainty over whether traffic will hold near recent stabilized lows or edge slightly higher if enforcement proves inconsistent or if carriers test selective transits. The lower probability on 200+ captures the persistent risk of renewed incidents or expanded restrictions, whereas the <160 outcome prices in further escalation or broader avoidance. Key near-term swing factors include any verified attacks, updates on U.S.–Iran talks, or Houthi statements on enforcement scope, all of which could shift daily volumes materially within the resolution window. Traders are therefore weighting current observed flows against the potential for rapid geopolitical repricing in a high-volatility chokepoint.