Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 and repeated vessel attacks, remain the dominant driver of low implied probabilities for higher weekly ship transits. Live trackers show daily passages averaging just 2–16 vessels in recent weeks—far below the pre-conflict baseline of 60–130—due to naval blockades, war-risk insurance withdrawals, GPS manipulation, and rerouting around Africa. This has compressed the week-of-August-10 distribution toward the 25-49 range as the market-implied mode, with trader consensus reflecting persistent but limited activity from Iran-linked or dark-fleet tankers amid elevated energy supply risks. Upcoming catalysts include any diplomatic signals or further strikes that could shift the seven-day moving average.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 42%
50-74 27%
75-99 26%
100+ 26%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
<25
24%
25-49
42%
50-74
27%
75-99
26%
100+
26%
25-49 42%
50-74 27%
75-99 26%
100+ 26%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$3 ปริมาณ
24%
25-49
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
50-74
$0 ปริมาณ
27%
75-99
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
100+
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 and repeated vessel attacks, remain the dominant driver of low implied probabilities for higher weekly ship transits. Live trackers show daily passages averaging just 2–16 vessels in recent weeks—far below the pre-conflict baseline of 60–130—due to naval blockades, war-risk insurance withdrawals, GPS manipulation, and rerouting around Africa. This has compressed the week-of-August-10 distribution toward the 25-49 range as the market-implied mode, with trader consensus reflecting persistent but limited activity from Iran-linked or dark-fleet tankers amid elevated energy supply risks. Upcoming catalysts include any diplomatic signals or further strikes that could shift the seven-day moving average.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 and repeated vessel attacks, remain the dominant driver of low implied probabilities for higher weekly ship transits. Live trackers show daily passages averaging just 2–16 vessels in recent weeks—far below the pre-conflict baseline of 60–130—due to naval blockades, war-risk insurance withdrawals, GPS manipulation, and rerouting around Africa. This has compressed the week-of-August-10 distribution toward the 25-49 range as the market-implied mode, with trader consensus reflecting persistent but limited activity from Iran-linked or dark-fleet tankers amid elevated energy supply risks. Upcoming catalysts include any diplomatic signals or further strikes that could shift the seven-day moving average.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 and repeated vessel attacks, remain the dominant driver of low implied probabilities for higher weekly ship transits. Live trackers show daily passages averaging just 2–16 vessels in recent weeks—far below the pre-conflict baseline of 60–130—due to naval blockades, war-risk insurance withdrawals, GPS manipulation, and rerouting around Africa. This has compressed the week-of-August-10 distribution toward the 25-49 range as the market-implied mode, with trader consensus reflecting persistent but limited activity from Iran-linked or dark-fleet tankers amid elevated energy supply risks. Upcoming catalysts include any diplomatic signals or further strikes that could shift the seven-day moving average.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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