Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, combined with missile and drone strikes on oil tankers and Aramco facilities in late July 2026, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits amid the broader Iran-U.S. conflict. Shipping data indicate daily crossings fell to as low as 11 vessels on some days and averaged around 31, down roughly 50% from Q2 levels in tonnage terms, as operators reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid elevated insurance rates and security risks. These developments have compressed weekly volumes into a narrow band near 200, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the sub-180, 180-199, and 200-219 buckets. Key swing factors include any further escalation or Saudi/international naval responses before mid-August, alongside selective targeting that spares non-Saudi vessels.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
200-219 47%
<180 46%
180-199 45%
220+ 37%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
<180
46%
180-199
45%
200-219
47%
220+
37%
200-219 47%
<180 46%
180-199 45%
220+ 37%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$0 ปริมาณ
46%
180-199
$0 ปริมาณ
45%
200-219
$0 ปริมาณ
47%
220+
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, combined with missile and drone strikes on oil tankers and Aramco facilities in late July 2026, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits amid the broader Iran-U.S. conflict. Shipping data indicate daily crossings fell to as low as 11 vessels on some days and averaged around 31, down roughly 50% from Q2 levels in tonnage terms, as operators reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid elevated insurance rates and security risks. These developments have compressed weekly volumes into a narrow band near 200, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the sub-180, 180-199, and 200-219 buckets. Key swing factors include any further escalation or Saudi/international naval responses before mid-August, alongside selective targeting that spares non-Saudi vessels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, combined with missile and drone strikes on oil tankers and Aramco facilities in late July 2026, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits amid the broader Iran-U.S. conflict. Shipping data indicate daily crossings fell to as low as 11 vessels on some days and averaged around 31, down roughly 50% from Q2 levels in tonnage terms, as operators reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid elevated insurance rates and security risks. These developments have compressed weekly volumes into a narrow band near 200, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the sub-180, 180-199, and 200-219 buckets. Key swing factors include any further escalation or Saudi/international naval responses before mid-August, alongside selective targeting that spares non-Saudi vessels.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping, combined with missile and drone strikes on oil tankers and Aramco facilities in late July 2026, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits amid the broader Iran-U.S. conflict. Shipping data indicate daily crossings fell to as low as 11 vessels on some days and averaged around 31, down roughly 50% from Q2 levels in tonnage terms, as operators reroute around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid elevated insurance rates and security risks. These developments have compressed weekly volumes into a narrow band near 200, producing closely matched market-implied odds across the sub-180, 180-199, and 200-219 buckets. Key swing factors include any further escalation or Saudi/international naval responses before mid-August, alongside selective targeting that spares non-Saudi vessels.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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