Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in early 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure on larger strategic islands such as Qeshm, Larak, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Iranian operations near the Strait of Hormuz, but no comparable actions, seizures, or sovereignty shifts have been reported for Farsi Island. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026 stay near 1-4 percent, reflecting the island’s limited profile relative to oil-export hubs or chokepoint facilities. Resolution hinges on official government or military statements and credible reporting confirming any change in primary governmental or military authority. No scheduled diplomatic or military events specific to the island appear imminent that would alter this assessment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$197,515 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
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$197,515 ปริมาณ
September 30
$20,245 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in early 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure on larger strategic islands such as Qeshm, Larak, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Iranian operations near the Strait of Hormuz, but no comparable actions, seizures, or sovereignty shifts have been reported for Farsi Island. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026 stay near 1-4 percent, reflecting the island’s limited profile relative to oil-export hubs or chokepoint facilities. Resolution hinges on official government or military statements and credible reporting confirming any change in primary governmental or military authority. No scheduled diplomatic or military events specific to the island appear imminent that would alter this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$197,515วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in early 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure on larger strategic islands such as Qeshm, Larak, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Iranian operations near the Strait of Hormuz, but no comparable actions, seizures, or sovereignty shifts have been reported for Farsi Island. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026 stay near 1-4 percent, reflecting the island’s limited profile relative to oil-export hubs or chokepoint facilities. Resolution hinges on official government or military statements and credible reporting confirming any change in primary governmental or military authority. No scheduled diplomatic or military events specific to the island appear imminent that would alter this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$197,515วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian control amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in early 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military infrastructure on larger strategic islands such as Qeshm, Larak, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Iranian operations near the Strait of Hormuz, but no comparable actions, seizures, or sovereignty shifts have been reported for Farsi Island. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026 stay near 1-4 percent, reflecting the island’s limited profile relative to oil-export hubs or chokepoint facilities. Resolution hinges on official government or military statements and credible reporting confirming any change in primary governmental or military authority. No scheduled diplomatic or military events specific to the island appear imminent that would alter this assessment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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