Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent daily counts averaging just 3–7 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline near 85–130. As of late August 2026, war-risk insurance premiums stand at 40 times normal levels, stranding roughly 460 vessels and prompting major carriers to reroute or suspend services, while shadow-fleet and U.S.-facilitated movements account for most limited activity. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0–5 and 5–10 buckets (combined 60.5% implied probability) prices in sustained low throughput through end-September, driven by IRGC coordination requirements, elevated sanctions exposure, and unresolved mine risks rather than near-term normalization. Upcoming diplomatic signals on Oman corridor talks or further kinetic incidents represent the primary swing factors that could shift the distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?
0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 17%
25-30 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
0-5
32%
5-10
29%
10-15
17%
15-20
6%
20-25
5%
25-30
11%
30+
9%
0-5 32%
5-10 29%
10-15 17%
25-30 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 30, 2026
0-5
$133 ปริมาณ
32%
5-10
$200 ปริมาณ
29%
10-15
$224 ปริมาณ
17%
15-20
$431 ปริมาณ
6%
20-25
$45 ปริมาณ
5%
25-30
$4,032 ปริมาณ
11%
30+
$52 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent daily counts averaging just 3–7 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline near 85–130. As of late August 2026, war-risk insurance premiums stand at 40 times normal levels, stranding roughly 460 vessels and prompting major carriers to reroute or suspend services, while shadow-fleet and U.S.-facilitated movements account for most limited activity. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0–5 and 5–10 buckets (combined 60.5% implied probability) prices in sustained low throughput through end-September, driven by IRGC coordination requirements, elevated sanctions exposure, and unresolved mine risks rather than near-term normalization. Upcoming diplomatic signals on Oman corridor talks or further kinetic incidents represent the primary swing factors that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,117วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent daily counts averaging just 3–7 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline near 85–130. As of late August 2026, war-risk insurance premiums stand at 40 times normal levels, stranding roughly 460 vessels and prompting major carriers to reroute or suspend services, while shadow-fleet and U.S.-facilitated movements account for most limited activity. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0–5 and 5–10 buckets (combined 60.5% implied probability) prices in sustained low throughput through end-September, driven by IRGC coordination requirements, elevated sanctions exposure, and unresolved mine risks rather than near-term normalization. Upcoming diplomatic signals on Oman corridor talks or further kinetic incidents represent the primary swing factors that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,117วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent daily counts averaging just 3–7 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline near 85–130. As of late August 2026, war-risk insurance premiums stand at 40 times normal levels, stranding roughly 460 vessels and prompting major carriers to reroute or suspend services, while shadow-fleet and U.S.-facilitated movements account for most limited activity. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0–5 and 5–10 buckets (combined 60.5% implied probability) prices in sustained low throughput through end-September, driven by IRGC coordination requirements, elevated sanctions exposure, and unresolved mine risks rather than near-term normalization. Upcoming diplomatic signals on Oman corridor talks or further kinetic incidents represent the primary swing factors that could shift the distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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