Geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict have kept the Bab el-Mandeb Strait open yet under constant threat of Houthi disruption, amplifying trader focus on energy chokepoints after the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure since March. Roughly 12% of seaborne oil trade and significant container volumes transit the route; any sustained blockade would force costly rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating freight rates, widening basis spreads, and supporting higher crude benchmarks amid already elevated volatility. Recent April threats tied to regional escalation, coupled with June missile exchanges, have sustained risk premiums without triggering full closure, while major carriers monitor developments ahead of potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further proxy actions that could shift implied probabilities in real-money markets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBab el-Mandeb ช่องแคบปิดอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพโดย...?
Bab el-Mandeb ช่องแคบปิดอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพโดย...?
$4,551,498 ปริมาณ
Jun 15, 2026
June 15
1%
June 22
2%
June 30
6%
September 30
22%
$4,551,498 ปริมาณ
June 15
$110,388 ปริมาณ
1%
June 22
$66,055 ปริมาณ
2%
June 30
$818,163 ปริมาณ
6%
September 30
$235,791 ปริมาณ
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict have kept the Bab el-Mandeb Strait open yet under constant threat of Houthi disruption, amplifying trader focus on energy chokepoints after the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure since March. Roughly 12% of seaborne oil trade and significant container volumes transit the route; any sustained blockade would force costly rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating freight rates, widening basis spreads, and supporting higher crude benchmarks amid already elevated volatility. Recent April threats tied to regional escalation, coupled with June missile exchanges, have sustained risk premiums without triggering full closure, while major carriers monitor developments ahead of potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further proxy actions that could shift implied probabilities in real-money markets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 8, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,551,498วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 8, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict have kept the Bab el-Mandeb Strait open yet under constant threat of Houthi disruption, amplifying trader focus on energy chokepoints after the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure since March. Roughly 12% of seaborne oil trade and significant container volumes transit the route; any sustained blockade would force costly rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating freight rates, widening basis spreads, and supporting higher crude benchmarks amid already elevated volatility. Recent April threats tied to regional escalation, coupled with June missile exchanges, have sustained risk premiums without triggering full closure, while major carriers monitor developments ahead of potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further proxy actions that could shift implied probabilities in real-money markets.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,551,498วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 8, 2026, 5:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict have kept the Bab el-Mandeb Strait open yet under constant threat of Houthi disruption, amplifying trader focus on energy chokepoints after the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure since March. Roughly 12% of seaborne oil trade and significant container volumes transit the route; any sustained blockade would force costly rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating freight rates, widening basis spreads, and supporting higher crude benchmarks amid already elevated volatility. Recent April threats tied to regional escalation, coupled with June missile exchanges, have sustained risk premiums without triggering full closure, while major carriers monitor developments ahead of potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further proxy actions that could shift implied probabilities in real-money markets.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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