Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular military deployments, with no reported ground operations, amphibious assaults, or coalition advances targeting its seizure amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Recent US Central Command strikes have focused on nearby positions such as Larak Island rocket launchers and mine-laying assets in late August 2026, alongside efforts to clear sea mines, while Iran has responded with missile and drone threats and continued assertions of sole administrative authority over Strait of Hormuz traffic. Diplomatic talks with Oman on future waterway management and Gulf state opposition to Iranian tolls or control have not altered territorial status on Hormuz Island itself. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, pricing negligible near-term probability of any shift in control.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$70,725 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$70,725 ปริมาณ
September 30
$448 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular military deployments, with no reported ground operations, amphibious assaults, or coalition advances targeting its seizure amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Recent US Central Command strikes have focused on nearby positions such as Larak Island rocket launchers and mine-laying assets in late August 2026, alongside efforts to clear sea mines, while Iran has responded with missile and drone threats and continued assertions of sole administrative authority over Strait of Hormuz traffic. Diplomatic talks with Oman on future waterway management and Gulf state opposition to Iranian tolls or control have not altered territorial status on Hormuz Island itself. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, pricing negligible near-term probability of any shift in control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$70,725วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular military deployments, with no reported ground operations, amphibious assaults, or coalition advances targeting its seizure amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Recent US Central Command strikes have focused on nearby positions such as Larak Island rocket launchers and mine-laying assets in late August 2026, alongside efforts to clear sea mines, while Iran has responded with missile and drone threats and continued assertions of sole administrative authority over Strait of Hormuz traffic. Diplomatic talks with Oman on future waterway management and Gulf state opposition to Iranian tolls or control have not altered territorial status on Hormuz Island itself. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, pricing negligible near-term probability of any shift in control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$70,725วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular military deployments, with no reported ground operations, amphibious assaults, or coalition advances targeting its seizure amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Recent US Central Command strikes have focused on nearby positions such as Larak Island rocket launchers and mine-laying assets in late August 2026, alongside efforts to clear sea mines, while Iran has responded with missile and drone threats and continued assertions of sole administrative authority over Strait of Hormuz traffic. Diplomatic talks with Oman on future waterway management and Gulf state opposition to Iranian tolls or control have not altered territorial status on Hormuz Island itself. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, pricing negligible near-term probability of any shift in control.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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