Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a reimposed naval blockade and recent attacks on commercial vessels such as ADNOC tankers on August 13, represent the dominant driver behind market-implied odds favoring fewer than 50 total transits for the week of August 17. Shipping data from Kpler and Windward show daily crossings averaging just 5-13 vessels in mid-August, roughly 90% below the pre-2026 baseline of 130-plus, amid Iranian demands for route control and stalled Oman-mediated talks. Traders price in persistent risk aversion, with insurance costs and AIS-dark operations further suppressing volume despite occasional US-assisted oil flows near 9 million barrels per day. Key near-term catalysts include any FOMC-adjacent energy price signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could alter blockade enforcement or Iranian compliance ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
<25 53%
25-49 44%
50-74 24%
100+ 23%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 23, 2026
<25
56%
25-49
44%
50-74
24%
75-99
18%
100+
23%
<25 53%
25-49 44%
50-74 24%
100+ 23%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 23, 2026
<25
$245 ปริมาณ
56%
25-49
$120 ปริมาณ
44%
50-74
$40 ปริมาณ
24%
75-99
$40 ปริมาณ
18%
100+
$40 ปริมาณ
23%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a reimposed naval blockade and recent attacks on commercial vessels such as ADNOC tankers on August 13, represent the dominant driver behind market-implied odds favoring fewer than 50 total transits for the week of August 17. Shipping data from Kpler and Windward show daily crossings averaging just 5-13 vessels in mid-August, roughly 90% below the pre-2026 baseline of 130-plus, amid Iranian demands for route control and stalled Oman-mediated talks. Traders price in persistent risk aversion, with insurance costs and AIS-dark operations further suppressing volume despite occasional US-assisted oil flows near 9 million barrels per day. Key near-term catalysts include any FOMC-adjacent energy price signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could alter blockade enforcement or Iranian compliance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$484วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a reimposed naval blockade and recent attacks on commercial vessels such as ADNOC tankers on August 13, represent the dominant driver behind market-implied odds favoring fewer than 50 total transits for the week of August 17. Shipping data from Kpler and Windward show daily crossings averaging just 5-13 vessels in mid-August, roughly 90% below the pre-2026 baseline of 130-plus, amid Iranian demands for route control and stalled Oman-mediated talks. Traders price in persistent risk aversion, with insurance costs and AIS-dark operations further suppressing volume despite occasional US-assisted oil flows near 9 million barrels per day. Key near-term catalysts include any FOMC-adjacent energy price signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could alter blockade enforcement or Iranian compliance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$484วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran tensions, including a reimposed naval blockade and recent attacks on commercial vessels such as ADNOC tankers on August 13, represent the dominant driver behind market-implied odds favoring fewer than 50 total transits for the week of August 17. Shipping data from Kpler and Windward show daily crossings averaging just 5-13 vessels in mid-August, roughly 90% below the pre-2026 baseline of 130-plus, amid Iranian demands for route control and stalled Oman-mediated talks. Traders price in persistent risk aversion, with insurance costs and AIS-dark operations further suppressing volume despite occasional US-assisted oil flows near 9 million barrels per day. Key near-term catalysts include any FOMC-adjacent energy price signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could alter blockade enforcement or Iranian compliance ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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