Recent developments confirm that formal Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations remain on a deep pause, with the last trilateral talks occurring in February 2026 and no substantive progress on core issues. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory as a prerequisite for any ceasefire, while Ukrainian leaders continue to reject territorial concessions and emphasize the need for robust security guarantees. Ongoing Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and statements from both sides that fighting will persist through the winter reinforce trader expectations that a comprehensive agreement will not materialize by the October 31 deadline. The 96% implied probability on "No" reflects this sustained impasse, though developments such as revived technical talks in September, battlefield shifts, or renewed U.S. diplomatic pressure could still alter timelines.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว4% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent developments confirm that formal Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations remain on a deep pause, with the last trilateral talks occurring in February 2026 and no substantive progress on core issues. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory as a prerequisite for any ceasefire, while Ukrainian leaders continue to reject territorial concessions and emphasize the need for robust security guarantees. Ongoing Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and statements from both sides that fighting will persist through the winter reinforce trader expectations that a comprehensive agreement will not materialize by the October 31 deadline. The 96% implied probability on "No" reflects this sustained impasse, though developments such as revived technical talks in September, battlefield shifts, or renewed U.S. diplomatic pressure could still alter timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$612วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent developments confirm that formal Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations remain on a deep pause, with the last trilateral talks occurring in February 2026 and no substantive progress on core issues. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory as a prerequisite for any ceasefire, while Ukrainian leaders continue to reject territorial concessions and emphasize the need for robust security guarantees. Ongoing Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and statements from both sides that fighting will persist through the winter reinforce trader expectations that a comprehensive agreement will not materialize by the October 31 deadline. The 96% implied probability on "No" reflects this sustained impasse, though developments such as revived technical talks in September, battlefield shifts, or renewed U.S. diplomatic pressure could still alter timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$612วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent developments confirm that formal Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations remain on a deep pause, with the last trilateral talks occurring in February 2026 and no substantive progress on core issues. Russian officials have reiterated demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory as a prerequisite for any ceasefire, while Ukrainian leaders continue to reject territorial concessions and emphasize the need for robust security guarantees. Ongoing Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and statements from both sides that fighting will persist through the winter reinforce trader expectations that a comprehensive agreement will not materialize by the October 31 deadline. The 96% implied probability on "No" reflects this sustained impasse, though developments such as revived technical talks in September, battlefield shifts, or renewed U.S. diplomatic pressure could still alter timelines.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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