Ongoing US-mediated talks remain stalled amid Russia's continued military operations and rejection of any freeze in fighting, while fundamental disagreements persist over territorial control, security guarantees, and NATO-related issues. Ukraine recently conveyed updated proposals to American negotiators, yet no framework has advanced to a signing stage, and both sides' positions show little convergence ahead of the tight August 31 deadline. Traders assign near-certain probability to "No" because verifiable diplomatic momentum and procedural steps needed for a formal agreement are absent. A last-minute breakthrough via direct high-level intervention or unexpected concessions could theoretically shift the outcome, though current evidence indicates such developments are improbable within the remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<1% โอกาส
$261,011 ปริมาณ
$261,011 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$261,011 ปริมาณ
$261,011 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-mediated talks remain stalled amid Russia's continued military operations and rejection of any freeze in fighting, while fundamental disagreements persist over territorial control, security guarantees, and NATO-related issues. Ukraine recently conveyed updated proposals to American negotiators, yet no framework has advanced to a signing stage, and both sides' positions show little convergence ahead of the tight August 31 deadline. Traders assign near-certain probability to "No" because verifiable diplomatic momentum and procedural steps needed for a formal agreement are absent. A last-minute breakthrough via direct high-level intervention or unexpected concessions could theoretically shift the outcome, though current evidence indicates such developments are improbable within the remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$261,011วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-mediated talks remain stalled amid Russia's continued military operations and rejection of any freeze in fighting, while fundamental disagreements persist over territorial control, security guarantees, and NATO-related issues. Ukraine recently conveyed updated proposals to American negotiators, yet no framework has advanced to a signing stage, and both sides' positions show little convergence ahead of the tight August 31 deadline. Traders assign near-certain probability to "No" because verifiable diplomatic momentum and procedural steps needed for a formal agreement are absent. A last-minute breakthrough via direct high-level intervention or unexpected concessions could theoretically shift the outcome, though current evidence indicates such developments are improbable within the remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$261,011วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-mediated talks remain stalled amid Russia's continued military operations and rejection of any freeze in fighting, while fundamental disagreements persist over territorial control, security guarantees, and NATO-related issues. Ukraine recently conveyed updated proposals to American negotiators, yet no framework has advanced to a signing stage, and both sides' positions show little convergence ahead of the tight August 31 deadline. Traders assign near-certain probability to "No" because verifiable diplomatic momentum and procedural steps needed for a formal agreement are absent. A last-minute breakthrough via direct high-level intervention or unexpected concessions could theoretically shift the outcome, though current evidence indicates such developments are improbable within the remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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