Recent U.S. GDP prints, including the Q2 2026 advance estimate of 1.5% annualized growth following a revised 1.6% in Q1, combined with institutional forecasts clustering between 2.0% and 2.3%, underpin the tight Polymarket spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins. AI-related capital expenditures continue to support investment-led expansion and productivity gains, partially offsetting softer consumer spending amid affordability pressures and elevated core inflation near 2.5–3%. Tariff effects from prior policy changes and slower labor-force growth from immigration restrictions present downside risks, while a stable unemployment rate around 4.1–4.6% and the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on rates limit upside surprises. Traders price in these competing forces near the long-run potential growth rate, with upcoming data on inflation, employment, and any fiscal developments likely to shift the narrow margin between the leading outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 35.2%
2.0–2.5% 32%
>2.5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 9.8%
$58,052 ปริมาณ
$58,052 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1.5–2.0%
35%
2.0–2.5%
32%
>2.5%
19%
1.5–2.0% 35.2%
2.0–2.5% 32%
>2.5% 19%
1.0–1.5% 9.8%
$58,052 ปริมาณ
$58,052 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,439 ปริมาณ
5%
0.5–1.0%
$17,161 ปริมาณ
4%
1.0–1.5%
$3,814 ปริมาณ
10%
1.5–2.0%
$6,622 ปริมาณ
35%
2.0–2.5%
$7,085 ปริมาณ
32%
>2.5%
$15,931 ปริมาณ
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP prints, including the Q2 2026 advance estimate of 1.5% annualized growth following a revised 1.6% in Q1, combined with institutional forecasts clustering between 2.0% and 2.3%, underpin the tight Polymarket spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins. AI-related capital expenditures continue to support investment-led expansion and productivity gains, partially offsetting softer consumer spending amid affordability pressures and elevated core inflation near 2.5–3%. Tariff effects from prior policy changes and slower labor-force growth from immigration restrictions present downside risks, while a stable unemployment rate around 4.1–4.6% and the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on rates limit upside surprises. Traders price in these competing forces near the long-run potential growth rate, with upcoming data on inflation, employment, and any fiscal developments likely to shift the narrow margin between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,052วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP prints, including the Q2 2026 advance estimate of 1.5% annualized growth following a revised 1.6% in Q1, combined with institutional forecasts clustering between 2.0% and 2.3%, underpin the tight Polymarket spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins. AI-related capital expenditures continue to support investment-led expansion and productivity gains, partially offsetting softer consumer spending amid affordability pressures and elevated core inflation near 2.5–3%. Tariff effects from prior policy changes and slower labor-force growth from immigration restrictions present downside risks, while a stable unemployment rate around 4.1–4.6% and the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on rates limit upside surprises. Traders price in these competing forces near the long-run potential growth rate, with upcoming data on inflation, employment, and any fiscal developments likely to shift the narrow margin between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$58,052วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. GDP prints, including the Q2 2026 advance estimate of 1.5% annualized growth following a revised 1.6% in Q1, combined with institutional forecasts clustering between 2.0% and 2.3%, underpin the tight Polymarket spread between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bins. AI-related capital expenditures continue to support investment-led expansion and productivity gains, partially offsetting softer consumer spending amid affordability pressures and elevated core inflation near 2.5–3%. Tariff effects from prior policy changes and slower labor-force growth from immigration restrictions present downside risks, while a stable unemployment rate around 4.1–4.6% and the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on rates limit upside surprises. Traders price in these competing forces near the long-run potential growth rate, with upcoming data on inflation, employment, and any fiscal developments likely to shift the narrow margin between the leading outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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