Recent preliminary labor market signals, including elevated jobless claims and softer ADP private payroll estimates, have produced a dispersed probability distribution for August nonfarm payrolls, with the 0–50k bucket holding the highest implied odds at 32.5%. Traders are weighing ongoing monetary policy restraint against resilient consumer spending and corporate earnings that continue to support hiring in select sectors. Key swing factors include the unemployment rate trajectory, average hourly earnings growth, and any revisions to prior months’ data, all of which will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The wide spread across negative to 150k+ outcomes underscores uncertainty ahead of the early-September release, as seasonal adjustments and labor supply dynamics remain difficult to forecast precisely.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many jobs added in August?
How many jobs added in August?
0 – 50k 33%
-50k – 0 23%
50k – 100k 18%
150k+ 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 5, 2026
<-50k
9%
-50k – 0
23%
0 – 50k
33%
50k – 100k
15%
100k – 150k
14%
150k+
10%
0 – 50k 33%
-50k – 0 23%
50k – 100k 18%
150k+ 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 5, 2026
<-50k
$110 ปริมาณ
9%
-50k – 0
$167 ปริมาณ
23%
0 – 50k
$277 ปริมาณ
33%
50k – 100k
$50 ปริมาณ
15%
100k – 150k
$49 ปริมาณ
14%
150k+
$76 ปริมาณ
10%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent preliminary labor market signals, including elevated jobless claims and softer ADP private payroll estimates, have produced a dispersed probability distribution for August nonfarm payrolls, with the 0–50k bucket holding the highest implied odds at 32.5%. Traders are weighing ongoing monetary policy restraint against resilient consumer spending and corporate earnings that continue to support hiring in select sectors. Key swing factors include the unemployment rate trajectory, average hourly earnings growth, and any revisions to prior months’ data, all of which will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The wide spread across negative to 150k+ outcomes underscores uncertainty ahead of the early-September release, as seasonal adjustments and labor supply dynamics remain difficult to forecast precisely.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$728วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent preliminary labor market signals, including elevated jobless claims and softer ADP private payroll estimates, have produced a dispersed probability distribution for August nonfarm payrolls, with the 0–50k bucket holding the highest implied odds at 32.5%. Traders are weighing ongoing monetary policy restraint against resilient consumer spending and corporate earnings that continue to support hiring in select sectors. Key swing factors include the unemployment rate trajectory, average hourly earnings growth, and any revisions to prior months’ data, all of which will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The wide spread across negative to 150k+ outcomes underscores uncertainty ahead of the early-September release, as seasonal adjustments and labor supply dynamics remain difficult to forecast precisely.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$728วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent preliminary labor market signals, including elevated jobless claims and softer ADP private payroll estimates, have produced a dispersed probability distribution for August nonfarm payrolls, with the 0–50k bucket holding the highest implied odds at 32.5%. Traders are weighing ongoing monetary policy restraint against resilient consumer spending and corporate earnings that continue to support hiring in select sectors. Key swing factors include the unemployment rate trajectory, average hourly earnings growth, and any revisions to prior months’ data, all of which will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The wide spread across negative to 150k+ outcomes underscores uncertainty ahead of the early-September release, as seasonal adjustments and labor supply dynamics remain difficult to forecast precisely.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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