The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S.-Iran tensions have driven energy prices higher, contributing to resurgent inflation readings that have shifted trader expectations toward tighter policy. The July FOMC meeting held rates at 3.5%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters signaling readiness to act if price pressures persist, while the next two CPI prints and any further geopolitical developments will shape the September decision. This data-dependent outlook, combined with historical patterns of the Fed responding to energy-driven inflation spikes, underpins the market's emphasis on a 25 basis point increase as the leading outcome ahead of the September 15-16 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent U.S.-Iran tensions have driven energy prices higher, contributing to resurgent inflation readings that have shifted trader expectations toward tighter policy. The July FOMC meeting held rates at 3.5%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters signaling readiness to act if price pressures persist, while the next two CPI prints and any further geopolitical developments will shape the September decision. This data-dependent outlook, combined with historical patterns of the Fed responding to energy-driven inflation spikes, underpins the market's emphasis on a 25 basis point increase as the leading outcome ahead of the September 15-16 meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July Meeting with Dissenters Favoring Hike
25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive hold. However, three dissenting members favored a 25 bps hike, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation. Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to price stability, and markets interpreted this as maintaining the possibility of a September rate increase.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting amid inflation concerns
No change plunges to 39%31%
The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike due to inflationary pressures. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized ongoing press conferences and the Fed's readiness to act if necessary, signaling potential tightening in the future.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July Meeting Despite Dissent
The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability amid persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, signaling a possible rate increase later in 2026.
Jul 15 2026
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns
25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%
In a speech on July 15, Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and supports maintaining restrictive monetary policy until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. This hawkish tone contributed to increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI Data Shows Inflation Remains Elevated at 3.4% Annual Rate
25 bps increase surges to 38%22%
The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 indicated inflation at 3.4% annually, slightly down from May but still above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for continued vigilance on inflation and potential rate hikes.
Jul 14 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee
25 bps increase jumps to 49%13%
Kevin Warsh testified emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling that interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase in the near future, contributing to rising probabilities for a rate hike in September.
Jul 14 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance in July Speeches
25 bps increase surges to 38%22%
In speeches during July 2026, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on price stability and the challenges posed by inflation and geopolitical risks, contributing to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, Below Forecast
No change dips to 39%2%
The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 showed a decline in inflation to 3.5%, below expectations, but core shelter inflation remained elevated. This data was closely watched ahead of the July FOMC meeting and influenced market expectations for the Fed's rate decision.
Jul 14 2026
June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations
The June 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, providing the Fed some breathing room but leaving uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and core inflation remaining sticky.
Jul 14 2026
House Financial Services Committee Hears Fed Chair Warsh Testimony on Monetary Policy
25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Committee on Financial Services, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling a cautious but hawkish stance. This reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase contract price.
Jul 14 2026
Fed Officials Deliver Speeches Highlighting Inflation Persistence and Economic Outlook
25 bps increase rises to 39%2%
Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Michael Barr, gave speeches emphasizing the challenges of persistent inflation and the Fed's commitment to price stability. These communications reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach, supporting the probability of a rate hike later in 2026.
Jul 13 2026
Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Hawkish Speeches Highlighting Inflation Risks
25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller and Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman gave speeches emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need for cautious monetary policy. These remarks contributed to market expectations of a potential rate hike later in 2026, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in September.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June meeting
The Federal Reserve decided unanimously to maintain the target federal funds rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion despite persistent inflation. The updated dot plot showed a hawkish pivot with expectations for rates to end 2026 higher than current levels, signaling fewer expected rate cuts.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but signals hawkish outlook
25 bps increase rises to 16%3%
At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously held the federal funds rate steady but raised its year-end rate projections, signaling a hawkish shift and increasing market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June Meeting
25 bps increase rises to 18%2%
The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict. The statement removed easing bias and signaled a commitment to price stability, which led markets to price in a higher likelihood of a 25 bps increase in subsequent meetings.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June Meeting
No change drops to 44%9%
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. This decision reinforced market expectations for a pause in rate changes at that time.
Jun 5 2026
May 2026 jobs report shows strong employment growth with 172,000 jobs added
25 bps increase rises to 16%4%
The May 2026 jobs report revealed a stronger-than-expected labor market with 172,000 jobs added, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance due to resilient employment and supporting expectations of future rate hikes.
May 29 2026
Fed officials signal possible rate hikes later in 2026 amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict
Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation pressures persist, particularly due to the war in the Middle East driving energy prices higher. Some officials expressed no urgency to adjust rates immediately but acknowledged the risk of inflation becoming unanchored.
May 22 2026
Kevin Warsh sworn in as new US Fed chair
25 bps increase rises to 14%3%
Kevin Warsh officially took office as Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026, beginning his leadership amid inflation pressures and political scrutiny, setting the stage for his first FOMC meeting and potential policy shifts.
May 13 2026
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair by Senate
25 bps increase plunges to 11%15%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13, 2026, as the new Federal Reserve Chair, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy direction amid ongoing inflation challenges. His confirmation introduced uncertainty and expectations of a hawkish stance, influencing market pricing for future rate hikes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S.-Iran tensions have driven energy prices higher, contributing to resurgent inflation readings that have shifted trader expectations toward tighter policy. The July FOMC meeting held rates at 3.5%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters signaling readiness to act if price pressures persist, while the next two CPI prints and any further geopolitical developments will shape the September decision. This data-dependent outlook, combined with historical patterns of the Fed responding to energy-driven inflation spikes, underpins the market's emphasis on a 25 basis point increase as the leading outcome ahead of the September 15-16 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Recent U.S.-Iran tensions have driven energy prices higher, contributing to resurgent inflation readings that have shifted trader expectations toward tighter policy. The July FOMC meeting held rates at 3.5%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with dissenters signaling readiness to act if price pressures persist, while the next two CPI prints and any further geopolitical developments will shape the September decision. This data-dependent outlook, combined with historical patterns of the Fed responding to energy-driven inflation spikes, underpins the market's emphasis on a 25 basis point increase as the leading outcome ahead of the September 15-16 meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July Meeting with Dissenters Favoring Hike
25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%
The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive hold. However, three dissenting members favored a 25 bps hike, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation. Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to price stability, and markets interpreted this as maintaining the possibility of a September rate increase.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July meeting amid inflation concerns
No change plunges to 39%31%
The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with three dissenters favoring a 25 bps hike due to inflationary pressures. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized ongoing press conferences and the Fed's readiness to act if necessary, signaling potential tightening in the future.
Jul 29 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July Meeting Despite Dissent
The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability amid persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, signaling a possible rate increase later in 2026.
Jul 15 2026
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns
25 bps increase jumps to 53%8%
In a speech on July 15, Governor Lisa Cook highlighted that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and supports maintaining restrictive monetary policy until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges. This hawkish tone contributed to increased market pricing for a 25 bps rate hike.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI Data Shows Inflation Remains Elevated at 3.4% Annual Rate
25 bps increase surges to 38%22%
The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 indicated inflation at 3.4% annually, slightly down from May but still above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for continued vigilance on inflation and potential rate hikes.
Jul 14 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before House Financial Services Committee
25 bps increase jumps to 49%13%
Kevin Warsh testified emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling that interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation does not cool. This reinforced market expectations for a 25 bps increase in the near future, contributing to rising probabilities for a rate hike in September.
Jul 14 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Hawkish Stance in July Speeches
25 bps increase surges to 38%22%
In speeches during July 2026, Chair Warsh emphasized the Fed's focus on price stability and the challenges posed by inflation and geopolitical risks, contributing to market expectations of a possible rate hike in September.
Jul 14 2026
June CPI Inflation Falls to 3.5%, Below Forecast
No change dips to 39%2%
The Consumer Price Index for June 2026 showed a decline in inflation to 3.5%, below expectations, but core shelter inflation remained elevated. This data was closely watched ahead of the July FOMC meeting and influenced market expectations for the Fed's rate decision.
Jul 14 2026
June 2026 CPI inflation falls to 3.5%, below expectations
The June 2026 Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 3.5%, driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, providing the Fed some breathing room but leaving uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and core inflation remaining sticky.
Jul 14 2026
House Financial Services Committee Hears Fed Chair Warsh Testimony on Monetary Policy
25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Committee on Financial Services, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to price stability and signaling a cautious but hawkish stance. This reinforced market expectations for a possible rate hike in September, contributing to the rise in the 25 bps increase contract price.
Jul 14 2026
Fed Officials Deliver Speeches Highlighting Inflation Persistence and Economic Outlook
25 bps increase rises to 39%2%
Several Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Michael Barr, gave speeches emphasizing the challenges of persistent inflation and the Fed's commitment to price stability. These communications reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach, supporting the probability of a rate hike later in 2026.
Jul 13 2026
Federal Reserve Officials Deliver Hawkish Speeches Highlighting Inflation Risks
25 bps increase jumps to 51%13%
Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller and Vice Chair Michelle W. Bowman gave speeches emphasizing persistent inflation risks and the need for cautious monetary policy. These remarks contributed to market expectations of a potential rate hike later in 2026, increasing the probability of a 25 bps increase in September.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June meeting
The Federal Reserve decided unanimously to maintain the target federal funds rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%, citing solid economic expansion despite persistent inflation. The updated dot plot showed a hawkish pivot with expectations for rates to end 2026 higher than current levels, signaling fewer expected rate cuts.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but signals hawkish outlook
25 bps increase rises to 16%3%
At its June 16-17 meeting, the Federal Reserve unanimously held the federal funds rate steady but raised its year-end rate projections, signaling a hawkish shift and increasing market expectations for a rate hike later in 2026.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June Meeting
25 bps increase rises to 18%2%
The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and economic uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict. The statement removed easing bias and signaled a commitment to price stability, which led markets to price in a higher likelihood of a 25 bps increase in subsequent meetings.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June Meeting
No change drops to 44%9%
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to supply shocks and geopolitical tensions. This decision reinforced market expectations for a pause in rate changes at that time.
Jun 5 2026
May 2026 jobs report shows strong employment growth with 172,000 jobs added
25 bps increase rises to 16%4%
The May 2026 jobs report revealed a stronger-than-expected labor market with 172,000 jobs added, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance due to resilient employment and supporting expectations of future rate hikes.
May 29 2026
Fed officials signal possible rate hikes later in 2026 amid inflation risks from Middle East conflict
Federal Reserve officials indicated readiness to raise interest rates if inflation pressures persist, particularly due to the war in the Middle East driving energy prices higher. Some officials expressed no urgency to adjust rates immediately but acknowledged the risk of inflation becoming unanchored.
May 22 2026
Kevin Warsh sworn in as new US Fed chair
25 bps increase rises to 14%3%
Kevin Warsh officially took office as Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026, beginning his leadership amid inflation pressures and political scrutiny, setting the stage for his first FOMC meeting and potential policy shifts.
May 13 2026
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair by Senate
25 bps increase plunges to 11%15%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13, 2026, as the new Federal Reserve Chair, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy direction amid ongoing inflation challenges. His confirmation introduced uncertainty and expectations of a hawkish stance, influencing market pricing for future rate hikes.
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