Elevated uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and labor market resilience is dispersing probabilities across multiple Fed rate paths for the September through December 2026 FOMC meetings, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding the highest market-implied odds at 27.5%. Recent economic data releases have shown mixed signals, including persistent core inflation readings above the 2% target alongside softening employment metrics, prompting traders to price in a data-dependent monetary policy stance rather than a clear easing or tightening bias. Key upcoming catalysts include the September CPI report, nonfarm payrolls, and the first FOMC decision, where any deviation in inflation or unemployment figures could shift the implied rate path and reallocate probabilities among the listed combinations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 28%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Pause–Hike 11%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$10,897 ปริมาณ
$10,897 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
13%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
5%
Pause–Pause–Hike
11%
Pause–Pause–Pause
28%
Pause–Hike–Hike
7%
Pause–Hike–Pause
3%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 28%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Pause–Hike 11%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$10,897 ปริมาณ
$10,897 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 ปริมาณ
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$296 ปริมาณ
13%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 ปริมาณ
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$237 ปริมาณ
5%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 ปริมาณ
11%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$8,928 ปริมาณ
28%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 ปริมาณ
7%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$214 ปริมาณ
3%
Other
$203 ปริมาณ
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and labor market resilience is dispersing probabilities across multiple Fed rate paths for the September through December 2026 FOMC meetings, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding the highest market-implied odds at 27.5%. Recent economic data releases have shown mixed signals, including persistent core inflation readings above the 2% target alongside softening employment metrics, prompting traders to price in a data-dependent monetary policy stance rather than a clear easing or tightening bias. Key upcoming catalysts include the September CPI report, nonfarm payrolls, and the first FOMC decision, where any deviation in inflation or unemployment figures could shift the implied rate path and reallocate probabilities among the listed combinations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,897วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and labor market resilience is dispersing probabilities across multiple Fed rate paths for the September through December 2026 FOMC meetings, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding the highest market-implied odds at 27.5%. Recent economic data releases have shown mixed signals, including persistent core inflation readings above the 2% target alongside softening employment metrics, prompting traders to price in a data-dependent monetary policy stance rather than a clear easing or tightening bias. Key upcoming catalysts include the September CPI report, nonfarm payrolls, and the first FOMC decision, where any deviation in inflation or unemployment figures could shift the implied rate path and reallocate probabilities among the listed combinations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,897วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated uncertainty around the inflation trajectory and labor market resilience is dispersing probabilities across multiple Fed rate paths for the September through December 2026 FOMC meetings, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding the highest market-implied odds at 27.5%. Recent economic data releases have shown mixed signals, including persistent core inflation readings above the 2% target alongside softening employment metrics, prompting traders to price in a data-dependent monetary policy stance rather than a clear easing or tightening bias. Key upcoming catalysts include the September CPI report, nonfarm payrolls, and the first FOMC decision, where any deviation in inflation or unemployment figures could shift the implied rate path and reallocate probabilities among the listed combinations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย