Elevated inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 27-28, 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged at the July 29 meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, with minutes indicating expectations of stability into early 2027 before any potential easing. Fed funds futures price a modest rise toward 4.0%-4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader caution on inflation trajectory versus official projections of gradual moderation toward 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September and December 2026 meetings plus CPI and employment data releases that could shift the balance toward the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in January?
No change 61%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 15%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$361 ปริมาณ
3%
25 bps decrease
$225 ปริมาณ
15%
No change
$1,475 ปริมาณ
61%
25 bps increase
$366 ปริมาณ
24%
50+ bps increase
$225 ปริมาณ
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 27-28, 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged at the July 29 meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, with minutes indicating expectations of stability into early 2027 before any potential easing. Fed funds futures price a modest rise toward 4.0%-4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader caution on inflation trajectory versus official projections of gradual moderation toward 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September and December 2026 meetings plus CPI and employment data releases that could shift the balance toward the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,652วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 27, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 27-28, 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged at the July 29 meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, with minutes indicating expectations of stability into early 2027 before any potential easing. Fed funds futures price a modest rise toward 4.0%-4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader caution on inflation trajectory versus official projections of gradual moderation toward 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September and December 2026 meetings plus CPI and employment data releases that could shift the balance toward the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,652วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 27, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market and solid economic growth, underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 27-28, 2027 FOMC meeting. The Fed held its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged at the July 29 meeting despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, with minutes indicating expectations of stability into early 2027 before any potential easing. Fed funds futures price a modest rise toward 4.0%-4.1% by mid-2027, reflecting trader caution on inflation trajectory versus official projections of gradual moderation toward 2%. Key upcoming catalysts include September and December 2026 meetings plus CPI and employment data releases that could shift the balance toward the 24% odds of a 25 basis point increase.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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