Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.2%, has anchored trader expectations for repeated pauses at the September and October FOMC meetings following the July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75%. A divided committee (9-3 vote) with three dissents favoring a hike signals hawkish pressure but has not yet shifted the majority consensus, keeping implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause at 58%. Recent cooling in June CPI to 3.5% YoY and softer job gains have tempered immediate tightening bets, while upcoming July–August inflation prints and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key swing factors before the next policy decision. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital aggregation of these data-dependent risks rather than certainty of the path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Pause–Pause–Pause 58%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$712,083 ปริมาณ
$712,083 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
58%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
40%
Pause–Pause–Pause 58%
Other 40%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$712,083 ปริมาณ
$712,083 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$236,075 ปริมาณ
58%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$58,561 ปริมาณ
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$36,021 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,060 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$310,878 ปริมาณ
40%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.2%, has anchored trader expectations for repeated pauses at the September and October FOMC meetings following the July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75%. A divided committee (9-3 vote) with three dissents favoring a hike signals hawkish pressure but has not yet shifted the majority consensus, keeping implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause at 58%. Recent cooling in June CPI to 3.5% YoY and softer job gains have tempered immediate tightening bets, while upcoming July–August inflation prints and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key swing factors before the next policy decision. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital aggregation of these data-dependent risks rather than certainty of the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$712,083วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.2%, has anchored trader expectations for repeated pauses at the September and October FOMC meetings following the July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75%. A divided committee (9-3 vote) with three dissents favoring a hike signals hawkish pressure but has not yet shifted the majority consensus, keeping implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause at 58%. Recent cooling in June CPI to 3.5% YoY and softer job gains have tempered immediate tightening bets, while upcoming July–August inflation prints and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key swing factors before the next policy decision. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital aggregation of these data-dependent risks rather than certainty of the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$712,083วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.2%, has anchored trader expectations for repeated pauses at the September and October FOMC meetings following the July 29 hold at 3.50–3.75%. A divided committee (9-3 vote) with three dissents favoring a hike signals hawkish pressure but has not yet shifted the majority consensus, keeping implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause at 58%. Recent cooling in June CPI to 3.5% YoY and softer job gains have tempered immediate tightening bets, while upcoming July–August inflation prints and the Jackson Hole symposium remain key swing factors before the next policy decision. Market-implied odds reflect real-capital aggregation of these data-dependent risks rather than certainty of the path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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