Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs—nearly triple consensus—have reinforced trader expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting market-implied odds for an increase to 78.5%. With the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range and core PCE inflation holding near 3.3%, resilient labor market conditions and above-target price pressures have shifted the balance toward tighter policy under Chair Warsh. Hawkish signals from June projections, where a majority of participants now see at least one hike by year-end, further support the pricing. Next week’s CPI and PPI releases remain the immediate catalyst that could confirm or temper these odds ahead of the meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhat will be the next Fed rate change?
What will be the next Fed rate change?
Hike
80% โอกาส
$10,491 ปริมาณ
$10,491 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
80% โอกาส
$10,491 ปริมาณ
$10,491 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs—nearly triple consensus—have reinforced trader expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting market-implied odds for an increase to 78.5%. With the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range and core PCE inflation holding near 3.3%, resilient labor market conditions and above-target price pressures have shifted the balance toward tighter policy under Chair Warsh. Hawkish signals from June projections, where a majority of participants now see at least one hike by year-end, further support the pricing. Next week’s CPI and PPI releases remain the immediate catalyst that could confirm or temper these odds ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,491วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs—nearly triple consensus—have reinforced trader expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting market-implied odds for an increase to 78.5%. With the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range and core PCE inflation holding near 3.3%, resilient labor market conditions and above-target price pressures have shifted the balance toward tighter policy under Chair Warsh. Hawkish signals from June projections, where a majority of participants now see at least one hike by year-end, further support the pricing. Next week’s CPI and PPI releases remain the immediate catalyst that could confirm or temper these odds ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,491วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs—nearly triple consensus—have reinforced trader expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, lifting market-implied odds for an increase to 78.5%. With the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50-3.75% range and core PCE inflation holding near 3.3%, resilient labor market conditions and above-target price pressures have shifted the balance toward tighter policy under Chair Warsh. Hawkish signals from June projections, where a majority of participants now see at least one hike by year-end, further support the pricing. Next week’s CPI and PPI releases remain the immediate catalyst that could confirm or temper these odds ahead of the meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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