Market-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy decisions from September through December reflect a closely contested outlook, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding a modest 27.5% lead as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against cooling labor market signals. Recent economic releases, including the latest CPI and nonfarm payrolls data, have kept the implied rate path uncertain, with markets pricing in a narrow range of possibilities rather than a decisive easing or tightening cycle. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications, Treasury yield movements, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift the balance toward additional hikes or sustained pauses. The distribution across multiple scenarios underscores the wisdom of crowds in this real-money venue, where participants incorporate forward-looking benchmarks like the Fed funds rate and historical policy responses to similar data environments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 27%
Hike–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
Hike–Pause–Hike 9%
$11,609 ปริมาณ
$11,609 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
20%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
27%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
5%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 27%
Hike–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Hike–Hike 11%
Hike–Pause–Hike 9%
$11,609 ปริมาณ
$11,609 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 ปริมาณ
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$479 ปริมาณ
20%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 ปริมาณ
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$398 ปริมาณ
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 ปริมาณ
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,127 ปริมาณ
27%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 ปริมาณ
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 ปริมาณ
5%
Other
$249 ปริมาณ
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy decisions from September through December reflect a closely contested outlook, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding a modest 27.5% lead as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against cooling labor market signals. Recent economic releases, including the latest CPI and nonfarm payrolls data, have kept the implied rate path uncertain, with markets pricing in a narrow range of possibilities rather than a decisive easing or tightening cycle. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications, Treasury yield movements, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift the balance toward additional hikes or sustained pauses. The distribution across multiple scenarios underscores the wisdom of crowds in this real-money venue, where participants incorporate forward-looking benchmarks like the Fed funds rate and historical policy responses to similar data environments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,609วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy decisions from September through December reflect a closely contested outlook, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding a modest 27.5% lead as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against cooling labor market signals. Recent economic releases, including the latest CPI and nonfarm payrolls data, have kept the implied rate path uncertain, with markets pricing in a narrow range of possibilities rather than a decisive easing or tightening cycle. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications, Treasury yield movements, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift the balance toward additional hikes or sustained pauses. The distribution across multiple scenarios underscores the wisdom of crowds in this real-money venue, where participants incorporate forward-looking benchmarks like the Fed funds rate and historical policy responses to similar data environments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,609วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for Federal Reserve policy decisions from September through December reflect a closely contested outlook, with Pause-Pause-Pause holding a modest 27.5% lead as traders weigh persistent inflation pressures against cooling labor market signals. Recent economic releases, including the latest CPI and nonfarm payrolls data, have kept the implied rate path uncertain, with markets pricing in a narrow range of possibilities rather than a decisive easing or tightening cycle. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications, Treasury yield movements, and any revisions to growth or inflation forecasts that could shift the balance toward additional hikes or sustained pauses. The distribution across multiple scenarios underscores the wisdom of crowds in this real-money venue, where participants incorporate forward-looking benchmarks like the Fed funds rate and historical policy responses to similar data environments.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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