Sustained U.S.-Mexico security cooperation, record fentanyl seizures, and sharply reduced border encounters have reinforced trader confidence against a 2026 invasion, as both governments prioritize joint operations over unilateral force. Economic interdependence under the USMCA further deters escalation, given the scale of cross-border trade and investment at stake. Early-year rhetoric from U.S. officials about strikes on cartels prompted Mexican rejections and congressional concerns but produced no authorizing legislation, troop deployments, or kinetic action inside Mexico. Institutional barriers, including sovereignty norms and congressional approval requirements, remain intact. A sudden collapse in bilateral results or an unforeseen crisis could still introduce volatility, though such thresholds appear distant with months remaining in the resolution window.