Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping and reported attacks on Red Sea infrastructure, have driven sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship counts fluctuating between lows near 11–16 and brief rebounds to 31–39. This uncertainty around sustained disruptions—compounded by rerouting decisions from major carriers, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Saudi Arabia’s formation of a protective maritime coalition—has compressed implied probabilities across the 180–220 range. Trader sentiment reflects the narrow gap between persistent threat levels that could suppress weekly volumes below 200 and any near-term stabilization or Saudi export shifts that might support higher throughput, with resolution hinging on developments in the immediate days before the August 10 period.