Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the active naval blockade, in place since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Strait of Hormuz. Recent data show commercial transits stuck at 1–13 vessels per day—roughly 90% below the pre-crisis average of ~70–130—reflecting war-risk insurance premiums that have risen sharply, Iranian demands for concessions as of August 8, and fragile Oman-mediated talks. This environment produces strong market-implied odds on the 25–49 and sub-25 weekly buckets, as aggregated capital reflects the low probability of rapid normalization ahead of the August 17 week. Any diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation could lift volumes, but persistent enforcement actions and elevated risk premia continue to anchor expectations near multi-month lows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю с 17 августа?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю с 17 августа?
25-49 44%
<25 31%
50-74 19%
100+ 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 авг. 2026 г.
<25
31%
25-49
56%
50-74
19%
75-99
16%
100+
11%
25-49 44%
<25 31%
50-74 19%
100+ 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 авг. 2026 г.
<25
$367 Объем
31%
25-49
$332 Объем
56%
50-74
$65 Объем
19%
75-99
$65 Объем
16%
100+
$45 Объем
11%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the active naval blockade, in place since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Strait of Hormuz. Recent data show commercial transits stuck at 1–13 vessels per day—roughly 90% below the pre-crisis average of ~70–130—reflecting war-risk insurance premiums that have risen sharply, Iranian demands for concessions as of August 8, and fragile Oman-mediated talks. This environment produces strong market-implied odds on the 25–49 and sub-25 weekly buckets, as aggregated capital reflects the low probability of rapid normalization ahead of the August 17 week. Any diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation could lift volumes, but persistent enforcement actions and elevated risk premia continue to anchor expectations near multi-month lows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Объем
$874Дата окончания
23 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the active naval blockade, in place since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Strait of Hormuz. Recent data show commercial transits stuck at 1–13 vessels per day—roughly 90% below the pre-crisis average of ~70–130—reflecting war-risk insurance premiums that have risen sharply, Iranian demands for concessions as of August 8, and fragile Oman-mediated talks. This environment produces strong market-implied odds on the 25–49 and sub-25 weekly buckets, as aggregated capital reflects the low probability of rapid normalization ahead of the August 17 week. Any diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation could lift volumes, but persistent enforcement actions and elevated risk premia continue to anchor expectations near multi-month lows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$874Дата окончания
23 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the active naval blockade, in place since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Strait of Hormuz. Recent data show commercial transits stuck at 1–13 vessels per day—roughly 90% below the pre-crisis average of ~70–130—reflecting war-risk insurance premiums that have risen sharply, Iranian demands for concessions as of August 8, and fragile Oman-mediated talks. This environment produces strong market-implied odds on the 25–49 and sub-25 weekly buckets, as aggregated capital reflects the low probability of rapid normalization ahead of the August 17 week. Any diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation could lift volumes, but persistent enforcement actions and elevated risk premia continue to anchor expectations near multi-month lows.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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