Recent Houthi attacks, including the deadly August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have intensified security risks and insurance premiums for Red Sea transits, prompting shippers to weigh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added fuel and time costs. The July 20 Saudi blockade declaration triggered an initial 24% drop in weekly traffic to the low 260s from prior levels near 350, with volumes stabilizing around 266 amid selective dark and shadow-fleet movements, though mainstream tanker activity fell sharply. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities for the 160-179 and 180-199 bands driven by variable daily crossings (recently 31-40) and potential for further deterrence from elevated war-risk pricing or additional incidents. Macro factors such as oil export volumes and global supply-chain delays add to the volatility, as operators monitor real-time threat assessments ahead of the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 17 августа?
Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 17 августа?
160-179 39%
180-199 39%
200+ 23%
<160 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 авг. 2026 г.
<160
18%
160-179
39%
180-199
39%
200+
23%
160-179 39%
180-199 39%
200+ 23%
<160 18%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 авг. 2026 г.
<160
$352 Объем
18%
160-179
$0 Объем
39%
180-199
$0 Объем
39%
200+
$0 Объем
23%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the deadly August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have intensified security risks and insurance premiums for Red Sea transits, prompting shippers to weigh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added fuel and time costs. The July 20 Saudi blockade declaration triggered an initial 24% drop in weekly traffic to the low 260s from prior levels near 350, with volumes stabilizing around 266 amid selective dark and shadow-fleet movements, though mainstream tanker activity fell sharply. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities for the 160-179 and 180-199 bands driven by variable daily crossings (recently 31-40) and potential for further deterrence from elevated war-risk pricing or additional incidents. Macro factors such as oil export volumes and global supply-chain delays add to the volatility, as operators monitor real-time threat assessments ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Объем
$352Дата окончания
23 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the deadly August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have intensified security risks and insurance premiums for Red Sea transits, prompting shippers to weigh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added fuel and time costs. The July 20 Saudi blockade declaration triggered an initial 24% drop in weekly traffic to the low 260s from prior levels near 350, with volumes stabilizing around 266 amid selective dark and shadow-fleet movements, though mainstream tanker activity fell sharply. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities for the 160-179 and 180-199 bands driven by variable daily crossings (recently 31-40) and potential for further deterrence from elevated war-risk pricing or additional incidents. Macro factors such as oil export volumes and global supply-chain delays add to the volatility, as operators monitor real-time threat assessments ahead of the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$352Дата окончания
23 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks, including the deadly August 11 strike on a cargo vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have intensified security risks and insurance premiums for Red Sea transits, prompting shippers to weigh rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added fuel and time costs. The July 20 Saudi blockade declaration triggered an initial 24% drop in weekly traffic to the low 260s from prior levels near 350, with volumes stabilizing around 266 amid selective dark and shadow-fleet movements, though mainstream tanker activity fell sharply. Trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities for the 160-179 and 180-199 bands driven by variable daily crossings (recently 31-40) and potential for further deterrence from elevated war-risk pricing or additional incidents. Macro factors such as oil export volumes and global supply-chain delays add to the volatility, as operators monitor real-time threat assessments ahead of the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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