The Islamic Republic has shown resilience through leadership decapitation, multiple rounds of direct conflict with Israel and the United States, and domestic unrest earlier in 2026, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed as supreme leader and security forces maintaining control without major defections. Recent limited exchanges on September 6 prompted both sides to step back under U.S. pressure, reinforcing a pattern of contained escalation rather than regime-threatening upheaval. With only weeks left before the September 30 resolution date, traders see no credible pathway for rapid internal fragmentation or external action sufficient to trigger collapse. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden elite defections, an unforeseen leadership crisis, or a major escalation that fractures command structures, though none appear imminent based on current diplomatic and military postures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Падет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Да
1% вероятность
$1,966,880 Объем
$1,966,880 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
1% вероятность
$1,966,880 Объем
$1,966,880 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has shown resilience through leadership decapitation, multiple rounds of direct conflict with Israel and the United States, and domestic unrest earlier in 2026, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed as supreme leader and security forces maintaining control without major defections. Recent limited exchanges on September 6 prompted both sides to step back under U.S. pressure, reinforcing a pattern of contained escalation rather than regime-threatening upheaval. With only weeks left before the September 30 resolution date, traders see no credible pathway for rapid internal fragmentation or external action sufficient to trigger collapse. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden elite defections, an unforeseen leadership crisis, or a major escalation that fractures command structures, though none appear imminent based on current diplomatic and military postures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Объем
$1,966,880Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has shown resilience through leadership decapitation, multiple rounds of direct conflict with Israel and the United States, and domestic unrest earlier in 2026, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed as supreme leader and security forces maintaining control without major defections. Recent limited exchanges on September 6 prompted both sides to step back under U.S. pressure, reinforcing a pattern of contained escalation rather than regime-threatening upheaval. With only weeks left before the September 30 resolution date, traders see no credible pathway for rapid internal fragmentation or external action sufficient to trigger collapse. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden elite defections, an unforeseen leadership crisis, or a major escalation that fractures command structures, though none appear imminent based on current diplomatic and military postures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,966,880Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has shown resilience through leadership decapitation, multiple rounds of direct conflict with Israel and the United States, and domestic unrest earlier in 2026, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed as supreme leader and security forces maintaining control without major defections. Recent limited exchanges on September 6 prompted both sides to step back under U.S. pressure, reinforcing a pattern of contained escalation rather than regime-threatening upheaval. With only weeks left before the September 30 resolution date, traders see no credible pathway for rapid internal fragmentation or external action sufficient to trigger collapse. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden elite defections, an unforeseen leadership crisis, or a major escalation that fractures command structures, though none appear imminent based on current diplomatic and military postures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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