**Ongoing US-Iran naval clashes and severely restricted flows explain the 99.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by September 15.** As of September 6, 2026, the Strait remains physically open but operates under “severely restricted transit,” with daily commercial arrivals averaging roughly 4 vessels—about 6% of the pre-crisis ~74 per day—following roughly 190 days of disruption that began in late February. Recent tit-for-tat strikes, including U.S. attacks on three Iranian tankers on September 5 in response to missile incidents, have sustained elevated risk, selective access, and Iranian enforcement of controlled routes. War-risk insurance premiums, mine hazards, GPS interference, and shipowner caution continue to suppress volumes far below historical benchmarks. These dynamics create strong trader consensus that meaningful recovery to normal throughput cannot occur within the next nine days. The only plausible tail-risk scenarios that could still shift the outcome involve an abrupt bilateral ceasefire, rapid demining or corridor clearance, or a sudden policy reversal by Iranian authorities that immediately restores unrestricted two-way tanker and LNG flows. Absent such rapid de-escalation, current conditions point to continued constrained operations.