Taiwan's presidential system features fixed four-year terms with removal possible only through legislative impeachment requiring a two-thirds majority followed by Constitutional Court review, or voluntary resignation. The most recent catalyst—a May 2026 opposition motion backed by the KMT and TPP—failed with 56-50 votes, well short of the threshold, after earlier procedural steps in late 2025. No subsequent credible efforts or triggering events have emerged, and President Lai continues official duties through mid-2026. Trader consensus reflects these institutional hurdles and the absence of health, scandal, or coalition shifts that could force an exit before year-end. Even so, a sudden medical crisis, major corruption revelation, or unexpected cross-strait escalation prompting political realignment could still alter the low-probability path to early departure.