Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command changes needed for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments from early 2026 concluded that Beijing does not currently plan an invasion in 2027 and instead favors sustained coercive gray-zone measures, including China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan that began in June and continued into August. Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercises, which concluded on August 14 with emphasis on reservist mobilization and supply resilience, have not triggered corresponding PRC escalation. Analysts note the high economic and military risks of kinetic action alongside ongoing diplomatic channels, such as prior Xi-Trump meetings, as structural factors supporting the current market consensus.