Persistent core disagreements over territorial concessions, particularly Russian demands for full control of Donbas, combined with Ukraine's insistence on security guarantees short of NATO membership and no unilateral withdrawals, have stalled all recent diplomatic efforts. The most recent verifiable signal came in mid-July 2026 when the Kremlin stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations, following earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only minor prisoner exchanges amid ongoing military operations. With roughly twelve days remaining before the August 31 deadline and no active framework or scheduled summit in place, traders assign near-certainty to no signed deal. A last-minute breakthrough would require rapid alignment on ceasefire terms, verifiable third-party security commitments, or an unforeseen shift in battlefield dynamics or U.S. mediation pressure within the narrow window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
<1% вероятность
$261,040 Объем
$261,040 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$261,040 Объем
$261,040 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent core disagreements over territorial concessions, particularly Russian demands for full control of Donbas, combined with Ukraine's insistence on security guarantees short of NATO membership and no unilateral withdrawals, have stalled all recent diplomatic efforts. The most recent verifiable signal came in mid-July 2026 when the Kremlin stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations, following earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only minor prisoner exchanges amid ongoing military operations. With roughly twelve days remaining before the August 31 deadline and no active framework or scheduled summit in place, traders assign near-certainty to no signed deal. A last-minute breakthrough would require rapid alignment on ceasefire terms, verifiable third-party security commitments, or an unforeseen shift in battlefield dynamics or U.S. mediation pressure within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Объем
$261,040Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent core disagreements over territorial concessions, particularly Russian demands for full control of Donbas, combined with Ukraine's insistence on security guarantees short of NATO membership and no unilateral withdrawals, have stalled all recent diplomatic efforts. The most recent verifiable signal came in mid-July 2026 when the Kremlin stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations, following earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only minor prisoner exchanges amid ongoing military operations. With roughly twelve days remaining before the August 31 deadline and no active framework or scheduled summit in place, traders assign near-certainty to no signed deal. A last-minute breakthrough would require rapid alignment on ceasefire terms, verifiable third-party security commitments, or an unforeseen shift in battlefield dynamics or U.S. mediation pressure within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$261,040Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent core disagreements over territorial concessions, particularly Russian demands for full control of Donbas, combined with Ukraine's insistence on security guarantees short of NATO membership and no unilateral withdrawals, have stalled all recent diplomatic efforts. The most recent verifiable signal came in mid-July 2026 when the Kremlin stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming negotiations, following earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva that produced only minor prisoner exchanges amid ongoing military operations. With roughly twelve days remaining before the August 31 deadline and no active framework or scheduled summit in place, traders assign near-certainty to no signed deal. A last-minute breakthrough would require rapid alignment on ceasefire terms, verifiable third-party security commitments, or an unforeseen shift in battlefield dynamics or U.S. mediation pressure within the narrow window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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