Recent rapid intensification has driven Typhoon Saudel to sustained winds near 125 mph in the Philippine Sea, with favorable warm waters and low shear supporting further strengthening before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental shifts limit additional gains. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicates a likely peak in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–104 kt), consistent with the market's dominant 85.5% implied probability, while Violent Typhoon outcomes remain possible only if intensification resumes more aggressively than current model consensus projects. Weakening is expected after 24–48 hours as the system tracks northwestward.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНасколько сильным будет тропический шторм «Саудел»?
Насколько сильным будет тропический шторм «Саудел»?
Очень сильный тайфун 86%
Яростный тайфун 14%
Тайфун 1.6%
Тропический шторм <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
Тропический шторм
<1%
Сильный тропический шторм
<1%
Тайфун
2%
Очень сильный тайфун
86%
Яростный тайфун
14%
Очень сильный тайфун 86%
Яростный тайфун 14%
Тайфун 1.6%
Тропический шторм <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
Тропический шторм
$663 Объем
<1%
Сильный тропический шторм
$606 Объем
<1%
Тайфун
$1,436 Объем
2%
Очень сильный тайфун
$1,496 Объем
86%
Яростный тайфун
$3,195 Объем
14%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent rapid intensification has driven Typhoon Saudel to sustained winds near 125 mph in the Philippine Sea, with favorable warm waters and low shear supporting further strengthening before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental shifts limit additional gains. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicates a likely peak in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–104 kt), consistent with the market's dominant 85.5% implied probability, while Violent Typhoon outcomes remain possible only if intensification resumes more aggressively than current model consensus projects. Weakening is expected after 24–48 hours as the system tracks northwestward.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Объем
$7,396Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent rapid intensification has driven Typhoon Saudel to sustained winds near 125 mph in the Philippine Sea, with favorable warm waters and low shear supporting further strengthening before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental shifts limit additional gains. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicates a likely peak in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–104 kt), consistent with the market's dominant 85.5% implied probability, while Violent Typhoon outcomes remain possible only if intensification resumes more aggressively than current model consensus projects. Weakening is expected after 24–48 hours as the system tracks northwestward.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Объем
$7,396Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent rapid intensification has driven Typhoon Saudel to sustained winds near 125 mph in the Philippine Sea, with favorable warm waters and low shear supporting further strengthening before an eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent environmental shifts limit additional gains. Official guidance from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicates a likely peak in the Very Strong Typhoon range (roughly 85–104 kt), consistent with the market's dominant 85.5% implied probability, while Violent Typhoon outcomes remain possible only if intensification resumes more aggressively than current model consensus projects. Weakening is expected after 24–48 hours as the system tracks northwestward.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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