Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the lower outcome buckets. Persistent IRGC enforcement actions, elevated war-risk premiums, sanctions reimposition, and route restrictions have kept daily vessel counts well below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 crossings, with recent trackers showing single-digit to low-teen averages amid selective dark transits and backlogs. The closely matched probabilities on <20 through 25-29 reflect uncertainty over near-term catalysts, including potential de-escalation signals or renewed strikes that could shift weekly aggregates. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these dynamics, pricing in the baseline of constrained flows without assuming resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 7 сентября?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 7 сентября?
<20 28%
20–24 19%
25-29 19%
30-34 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
<20
28%
20–24
19%
25-29
19%
30-34
13%
35-39
12%
40+
9%
<20 28%
20–24 19%
25-29 19%
30-34 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
<20
$824 Объем
28%
20–24
$237 Объем
19%
25-29
$335 Объем
19%
30-34
$217 Объем
13%
35-39
$962 Объем
12%
40+
$234 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the lower outcome buckets. Persistent IRGC enforcement actions, elevated war-risk premiums, sanctions reimposition, and route restrictions have kept daily vessel counts well below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 crossings, with recent trackers showing single-digit to low-teen averages amid selective dark transits and backlogs. The closely matched probabilities on <20 through 25-29 reflect uncertainty over near-term catalysts, including potential de-escalation signals or renewed strikes that could shift weekly aggregates. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these dynamics, pricing in the baseline of constrained flows without assuming resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Объем
$2,809Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the lower outcome buckets. Persistent IRGC enforcement actions, elevated war-risk premiums, sanctions reimposition, and route restrictions have kept daily vessel counts well below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 crossings, with recent trackers showing single-digit to low-teen averages amid selective dark transits and backlogs. The closely matched probabilities on <20 through 25-29 reflect uncertainty over near-term catalysts, including potential de-escalation signals or renewed strikes that could shift weekly aggregates. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these dynamics, pricing in the baseline of constrained flows without assuming resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$2,809Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the lower outcome buckets. Persistent IRGC enforcement actions, elevated war-risk premiums, sanctions reimposition, and route restrictions have kept daily vessel counts well below the pre-2026 average of roughly 130 crossings, with recent trackers showing single-digit to low-teen averages amid selective dark transits and backlogs. The closely matched probabilities on <20 through 25-29 reflect uncertainty over near-term catalysts, including potential de-escalation signals or renewed strikes that could shift weekly aggregates. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these dynamics, pricing in the baseline of constrained flows without assuming resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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