Persistent geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S., including IRGC route enforcement and recent vessel attacks, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the dispersed market-implied odds. As of early September 2026, daily AIS-visible transits remain in the low single digits to mid-teens—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–100 vessels—reflecting sanctions exposure, insurance constraints, and operators favoring “dark” routing or avoidance. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (24.5%) to fewer than 20 weekly transits, with closely matched buckets through the 30s underscoring uncertainty over last-minute escalations or temporary de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any IRGC statements, U.S. naval posture shifts, or oil-price reactions that could alter risk appetite and throughput.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 7 сентября?
Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 7 сентября?
<20 25%
20–24 20%
25-29 19%
30-34 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
<20
25%
20–24
20%
25-29
19%
30-34
13%
35-39
11%
40+
10%
<20 25%
20–24 20%
25-29 19%
30-34 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
<20
$824 Объем
25%
20–24
$237 Объем
20%
25-29
$325 Объем
19%
30-34
$208 Объем
13%
35-39
$903 Объем
11%
40+
$234 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S., including IRGC route enforcement and recent vessel attacks, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the dispersed market-implied odds. As of early September 2026, daily AIS-visible transits remain in the low single digits to mid-teens—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–100 vessels—reflecting sanctions exposure, insurance constraints, and operators favoring “dark” routing or avoidance. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (24.5%) to fewer than 20 weekly transits, with closely matched buckets through the 30s underscoring uncertainty over last-minute escalations or temporary de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any IRGC statements, U.S. naval posture shifts, or oil-price reactions that could alter risk appetite and throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Объем
$2,731Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S., including IRGC route enforcement and recent vessel attacks, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the dispersed market-implied odds. As of early September 2026, daily AIS-visible transits remain in the low single digits to mid-teens—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–100 vessels—reflecting sanctions exposure, insurance constraints, and operators favoring “dark” routing or avoidance. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (24.5%) to fewer than 20 weekly transits, with closely matched buckets through the 30s underscoring uncertainty over last-minute escalations or temporary de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any IRGC statements, U.S. naval posture shifts, or oil-price reactions that could alter risk appetite and throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$2,731Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 10:25 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S., including IRGC route enforcement and recent vessel attacks, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the dispersed market-implied odds. As of early September 2026, daily AIS-visible transits remain in the low single digits to mid-teens—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–100 vessels—reflecting sanctions exposure, insurance constraints, and operators favoring “dark” routing or avoidance. Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (24.5%) to fewer than 20 weekly transits, with closely matched buckets through the 30s underscoring uncertainty over last-minute escalations or temporary de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any IRGC statements, U.S. naval posture shifts, or oil-price reactions that could alter risk appetite and throughput.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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