Ongoing military escalation between the U.S. and Iran, including strikes on Larak Island and retaliatory missile attacks, combined with direct hits on tankers such as the Sidr and Senegal Prosperity on August 31, has kept visible commodity transits through the Strait of Hormuz in the low single digits per day. Kpler and UKMTO data show traffic running roughly 90% below pre-crisis baselines of 70–130 vessels daily, with 400-plus ships holding position amid mine threats, Iranian blacklists, and war-risk premiums near 10% of hull value. These conditions have produced trader consensus around 20–39 total transits for the week, reflected in the 71% implied probability, while the 26% chance assigned to fewer than 20 accounts for further attacks or full avoidance. Elevated insurance costs and route uncertainty continue to suppress volumes despite limited dark or northern-corridor movements.