Recent Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb have intensified security risks for commercial traffic, reinforcing trader expectations of subdued volumes in the week ahead. Heightened attack threats, selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels, and elevated war-risk premiums continue to favor rerouting or shadow-fleet activity over mainstream transits, keeping compliant flows well below pre-2024 norms. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 170–209 range, reflecting uncertainty over whether daily crossings stabilize near 25–30 or dip further amid potential escalation. Key swing factors include any confirmed strikes or carrier announcements before mid-September, with the wisdom of crowds in this contract pricing in persistent disruption rather than normalization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 7 сентября?
Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 7 сентября?
170–189 36%
190-209 28%
210-229 24%
<170 9%
$36,651 Объем
$36,651 Объем
13 сент. 2026 г.
<170
9%
170–189
36%
190-209
28%
210-229
24%
230+
6%
170–189 36%
190-209 28%
210-229 24%
<170 9%
$36,651 Объем
$36,651 Объем
13 сент. 2026 г.
<170
$13,830 Объем
9%
170–189
$287 Объем
36%
190-209
$566 Объем
28%
210-229
$663 Объем
24%
230+
$21,304 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb have intensified security risks for commercial traffic, reinforcing trader expectations of subdued volumes in the week ahead. Heightened attack threats, selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels, and elevated war-risk premiums continue to favor rerouting or shadow-fleet activity over mainstream transits, keeping compliant flows well below pre-2024 norms. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 170–209 range, reflecting uncertainty over whether daily crossings stabilize near 25–30 or dip further amid potential escalation. Key swing factors include any confirmed strikes or carrier announcements before mid-September, with the wisdom of crowds in this contract pricing in persistent disruption rather than normalization.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Объем
$36,651Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb have intensified security risks for commercial traffic, reinforcing trader expectations of subdued volumes in the week ahead. Heightened attack threats, selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels, and elevated war-risk premiums continue to favor rerouting or shadow-fleet activity over mainstream transits, keeping compliant flows well below pre-2024 norms. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 170–209 range, reflecting uncertainty over whether daily crossings stabilize near 25–30 or dip further amid potential escalation. Key swing factors include any confirmed strikes or carrier announcements before mid-September, with the wisdom of crowds in this contract pricing in persistent disruption rather than normalization.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$36,651Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb have intensified security risks for commercial traffic, reinforcing trader expectations of subdued volumes in the week ahead. Heightened attack threats, selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels, and elevated war-risk premiums continue to favor rerouting or shadow-fleet activity over mainstream transits, keeping compliant flows well below pre-2024 norms. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 170–209 range, reflecting uncertainty over whether daily crossings stabilize near 25–30 or dip further amid potential escalation. Key swing factors include any confirmed strikes or carrier announcements before mid-September, with the wisdom of crowds in this contract pricing in persistent disruption rather than normalization.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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