The election for Russia's 450-seat State Duma is set for 18–20 September 2026 under a mixed system of proportional representation and single-member districts. Recent official polls from FOM and WCIOM place KPRF support at roughly 9–14 percent, projecting 58–73 seats depending on the model, while independent surveys indicate even softer underlying backing amid economic pressures and war fatigue. Traders price the <60 seat brackets highest because administrative measures—including candidate sidelining in key constituencies, regional detentions targeting party structures, and competition for protest votes from LDPR and New People—limit upside potential in the single-member half of the ballot. KPRF's established regional organization provides a floor near its current 56 seats, but the Kremlin-aligned electoral framework favors outcomes clustered in the lower ranges absent major late shifts in turnout or registration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено<50 48%
50–59 38%
60–69 8%
100+ 3.5%
<50
48%
50–59
38%
60–69
8%
70–79
3%
80–89
1%
90–99
2%
100+
4%
<50 48%
50–59 38%
60–69 8%
100+ 3.5%
<50
48%
50–59
38%
60–69
8%
70–79
3%
80–89
1%
90–99
2%
100+
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Открытие рынка: Sep 1, 2026, 8:52 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The election for Russia's 450-seat State Duma is set for 18–20 September 2026 under a mixed system of proportional representation and single-member districts. Recent official polls from FOM and WCIOM place KPRF support at roughly 9–14 percent, projecting 58–73 seats depending on the model, while independent surveys indicate even softer underlying backing amid economic pressures and war fatigue. Traders price the <60 seat brackets highest because administrative measures—including candidate sidelining in key constituencies, regional detentions targeting party structures, and competition for protest votes from LDPR and New People—limit upside potential in the single-member half of the ballot. KPRF's established regional organization provides a floor near its current 56 seats, but the Kremlin-aligned electoral framework favors outcomes clustered in the lower ranges absent major late shifts in turnout or registration.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Получит ли ЛДПР (Либерально-демократическая партия России) менее 45 мест на следующих выборах в Государственную Думу России?
Получит ли «Единая Россия» от 325 до 339 мест на следующих выборах в Государственную думу России?
Получат ли "Новые люди" (НЛ) менее 35 мест на следующих выборах в Государственную Думу России?
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