The Michigan Senate primary on August 4 stands as the dominant near-term factor, with AIPAC-affiliated groups deploying record outside spending to back one candidate against a progressive challenger in a race that could add one or two losses to the total. Earlier 2026 results, including several defeats for AIPAC-endorsed candidates in New York House primaries during June, have already contributed to the current tally and reinforced trader expectations for a modest number of additional upsets through the remaining contests. Mixed outcomes in Illinois and other states this cycle, combined with high incumbent success rates in most pro-Israel backed races, keep the 2–3 loss bracket as the clearest consensus while leaving room for one extra defeat if Michigan tilts differently. Scheduled primaries through August 4 limit further volatility absent major late developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHow many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
2–3 69%
4–5 33%
0–1 1.3%
10+ <1%
$15,339 Объем
$15,339 Объем
4 авг. 2026 г.
0–1
1%
2–3
69%
4–5
33%
6–7
<1%
8–9
<1%
10+
<1%
2–3 69%
4–5 33%
0–1 1.3%
10+ <1%
$15,339 Объем
$15,339 Объем
4 авг. 2026 г.
0–1
$4,341 Объем
1%
2–3
$4,727 Объем
69%
4–5
$2,023 Объем
33%
6–7
$2,280 Объем
<1%
8–9
$406 Объем
<1%
10+
$1,563 Объем
<1%
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Michigan Senate primary on August 4 stands as the dominant near-term factor, with AIPAC-affiliated groups deploying record outside spending to back one candidate against a progressive challenger in a race that could add one or two losses to the total. Earlier 2026 results, including several defeats for AIPAC-endorsed candidates in New York House primaries during June, have already contributed to the current tally and reinforced trader expectations for a modest number of additional upsets through the remaining contests. Mixed outcomes in Illinois and other states this cycle, combined with high incumbent success rates in most pro-Israel backed races, keep the 2–3 loss bracket as the clearest consensus while leaving room for one extra defeat if Michigan tilts differently. Scheduled primaries through August 4 limit further volatility absent major late developments.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Объем
$15,339Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Michigan Senate primary on August 4 stands as the dominant near-term factor, with AIPAC-affiliated groups deploying record outside spending to back one candidate against a progressive challenger in a race that could add one or two losses to the total. Earlier 2026 results, including several defeats for AIPAC-endorsed candidates in New York House primaries during June, have already contributed to the current tally and reinforced trader expectations for a modest number of additional upsets through the remaining contests. Mixed outcomes in Illinois and other states this cycle, combined with high incumbent success rates in most pro-Israel backed races, keep the 2–3 loss bracket as the clearest consensus while leaving room for one extra defeat if Michigan tilts differently. Scheduled primaries through August 4 limit further volatility absent major late developments.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$15,339Дата окончания
4 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 2, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Michigan Senate primary on August 4 stands as the dominant near-term factor, with AIPAC-affiliated groups deploying record outside spending to back one candidate against a progressive challenger in a race that could add one or two losses to the total. Earlier 2026 results, including several defeats for AIPAC-endorsed candidates in New York House primaries during June, have already contributed to the current tally and reinforced trader expectations for a modest number of additional upsets through the remaining contests. Mixed outcomes in Illinois and other states this cycle, combined with high incumbent success rates in most pro-Israel backed races, keep the 2–3 loss bracket as the clearest consensus while leaving room for one extra defeat if Michigan tilts differently. Scheduled primaries through August 4 limit further volatility absent major late developments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы