Skip to main content

Чтобы торговать в США, перейдите на polymarket.us

icon for Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?
Политика·Сенат

Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?

icon for Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?
Политика·Сенат

Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?

$65,174 Объем

3 нояб. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$65,174 Объем

Polymarket

Техас

$7,142 Объем

83%

Аляска

$2,789 Объем

71%

Айова

$5,840 Объем

69%

Kansas

$571 Объем

63%

Огайо (Специальные)

$3,967 Объем

56%

Мичиган

$3,002 Объем

54%

Мэн

$1,119 Объем

48%

Небраска

$3,719 Объем

45%

Нью-Гэмпшир

$2,422 Объем

41%

South Carolina

$109 Объем

41%

Северная Каролина

$5,817 Объем

28%

Флорида (специальные)

$2,450 Объем

25%

Миннесота

$10,369 Объем

23%

Джорджия

$2,057 Объем

20%

Нью-Мексико

$6,665 Объем

13%

Монтана

$3,190 Объем

11%

Колорадо

$2,599 Объем

4%

Вирджиния

$1,344 Объем

3%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent national polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–8 points amid low presidential approval tied to economic pressures and foreign policy developments, creating a favorable environment for competitive Senate contests.** This dynamic has tightened several Republican-held seats, with Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio (special), New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa frequently polling within or near 5 points based on aggregates from sources like RealClearPolitics and individual surveys through mid-September 2026. Key factors include strong Democratic nominees in open or vulnerable races—such as former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina, former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and state Rep. James Talarico in Texas—alongside Republican incumbents or nominees facing headwinds in battlegrounds. Primaries wrapped recently, solidifying matchups, while early voting and the final weeks before November 3 could shift margins through turnout and late developments. Trader focus on races within 5% reflects these narrow polling spreads and the path to Senate control, which hinges on a handful of toss-ups.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$65,174
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent national polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 7–8 points amid low presidential approval tied to economic pressures and foreign policy developments, creating a favorable environment for competitive Senate contests.** This dynamic has tightened several Republican-held seats, with Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio (special), New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa frequently polling within or near 5 points based on aggregates from sources like RealClearPolitics and individual surveys through mid-September 2026. Key factors include strong Democratic nominees in open or vulnerable races—such as former Governor Roy Cooper in North Carolina, former Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and state Rep. James Talarico in Texas—alongside Republican incumbents or nominees facing headwinds in battlegrounds. Primaries wrapped recently, solidifying matchups, while early voting and the final weeks before November 3 could shift margins through turnout and late developments. Trader focus on races within 5% reflects these narrow polling spreads and the path to Senate control, which hinges on a handful of toss-ups.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$65,174
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Связанные

icon for Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

31%
icon for Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?

Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?

15%
icon for Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

Will any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?

24%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 18 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Техас» с 83%, за ним следует «Аляска» с 71%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 83¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 83%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $65.2K с момента запуска рынка Jul 29, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?», просмотри 18 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?» — «Техас» с 83%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 83%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Аляска» с 71%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Какие сенатские гонки будут в пределах 5%?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.