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icon for Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?
Политика·Трамп

Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?

icon for Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?
Политика·Трамп

Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?

$560,617 Объем

31 мар. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$560,617 Объем

Polymarket

31 декабря 2026 года

$5,656 Объем

11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority under Majority Leader John Thune, creating structural incentives and barriers for invoking the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to lower or eliminate the 60-vote cloture threshold for most legislation. President Trump has repeatedly urged full elimination to advance priorities such as voting reform measures and appropriations, yet GOP leadership has rejected broad changes, citing insufficient internal support and risks of prolonged floor paralysis from a talking filibuster alternative. Limited procedural precedents occurred in 2025 on nominations and budget baselines, but major legislative pushes in 2026 stalled without triggering a full filibuster carve-out. With 2026 midterms approaching and potential shifts in Senate control, traders weigh calendar deadlines against party discipline and historical reluctance to permanently alter Senate rules absent acute, unified pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
Объем
$560,617
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority under Majority Leader John Thune, creating structural incentives and barriers for invoking the nuclear option—a simple-majority rules change to lower or eliminate the 60-vote cloture threshold for most legislation. President Trump has repeatedly urged full elimination to advance priorities such as voting reform measures and appropriations, yet GOP leadership has rejected broad changes, citing insufficient internal support and risks of prolonged floor paralysis from a talking filibuster alternative. Limited procedural precedents occurred in 2025 on nominations and budget baselines, but major legislative pushes in 2026 stalled without triggering a full filibuster carve-out. With 2026 midterms approaching and potential shifts in Senate control, traders weigh calendar deadlines against party discipline and historical reluctance to permanently alter Senate rules absent acute, unified pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
Объем
$560,617
Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.

Связанные

icon for Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?

<1%
icon for Проголосует ли Рэнд Пол «за» Закон о ясности?

Проголосует ли Рэнд Пол «за» Закон о ясности?

51%
Да
icon for Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?

28%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 4 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «31 декабря 2026 года» с 11%, за ним следует «31 октября» с 0%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 11¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 11%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $560.6K с момента запуска рынка Oct 1, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?», просмотри 4 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» — «31 декабря 2026 года» с 11%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 11%. Следующий ближайший исход — «31 октября» с 0%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Будет ли Республиканская партия использовать «Ядерный вариант», чтобы сломать филибустер на...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.