Traders assign a 98.7% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any active congressional impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or confirmed health crises that could trigger the 25th Amendment. Removal via impeachment requires House action followed by a Senate trial, processes that historically span months even under unified opposition. No scheduled votes, special sessions, or cabinet invocations of incapacity appear imminent within the narrow 30-day window. While sudden medical events, major scandals prompting resignation, or unforeseen legal disqualifications remain theoretically possible, such developments lack supporting evidence from official statements or institutional timelines and would represent low-probability outliers against established patterns of presidential continuity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 98.7% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any active congressional impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or confirmed health crises that could trigger the 25th Amendment. Removal via impeachment requires House action followed by a Senate trial, processes that historically span months even under unified opposition. No scheduled votes, special sessions, or cabinet invocations of incapacity appear imminent within the narrow 30-day window. While sudden medical events, major scandals prompting resignation, or unforeseen legal disqualifications remain theoretically possible, such developments lack supporting evidence from official statements or institutional timelines and would represent low-probability outliers against established patterns of presidential continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Объем
$5,809Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 98.7% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any active congressional impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or confirmed health crises that could trigger the 25th Amendment. Removal via impeachment requires House action followed by a Senate trial, processes that historically span months even under unified opposition. No scheduled votes, special sessions, or cabinet invocations of incapacity appear imminent within the narrow 30-day window. While sudden medical events, major scandals prompting resignation, or unforeseen legal disqualifications remain theoretically possible, such developments lack supporting evidence from official statements or institutional timelines and would represent low-probability outliers against established patterns of presidential continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$5,809Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.7% implied probability that Donald Trump remains president through August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any active congressional impeachment proceedings, resignation signals, or confirmed health crises that could trigger the 25th Amendment. Removal via impeachment requires House action followed by a Senate trial, processes that historically span months even under unified opposition. No scheduled votes, special sessions, or cabinet invocations of incapacity appear imminent within the narrow 30-day window. While sudden medical events, major scandals prompting resignation, or unforeseen legal disqualifications remain theoretically possible, such developments lack supporting evidence from official statements or institutional timelines and would represent low-probability outliers against established patterns of presidential continuity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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