Current numerical weather prediction models, including runs from major global centers, indicate Moscow highs on August 5 centering near 27–29 °C under generally stable summer conditions with limited cloud cover and light winds. This positions 27 °C as the market leader at 40 % implied probability, followed closely by 26 °C and 28 °C, reflecting typical ensemble spread and minor variations in daytime maximum timing. Recent short-range forecasts have shown little day-to-day shift, consistent with climatological August averages of 22–24 °C yet tempered by the current warm anomaly. Traders weigh resolution criteria around official station readings against potential model adjustments from incoming satellite or surface data, while noting that any late intensification of high pressure or altered advection could nudge the peak upward or downward within the narrow 25–29 °C band that dominates volume.