Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance for August 4 projects a maximum of 30 °C under mainly cloudy skies with showers and a 70–95 % rain probability, aligning closely with the market’s leading 30 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Persistent high humidity, typical of peak summer, limits diurnal warming while cloud cover and convective showers can suppress peak readings by 1–2 °C relative to clear-sky baselines. Regional model consensus clusters around 29–31 °C, with slight downward bias from expected rainfall; historical August maxima average near 31 °C, yet recent wetter patterns have produced cooler daily peaks. Traders appear to weigh these near-term forecast uncertainties most heavily ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Гонконге 4 августа?
30°C 37%
29°C 35%
31°C 13%
28°C 10%
$46,210 Объем
$46,210 Объем
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
10%
29°C
35%
30°C
37%
31°C
13%
32°C
7%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 37%
29°C 35%
31°C 13%
28°C 10%
$46,210 Объем
$46,210 Объем
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
10%
29°C
35%
30°C
37%
31°C
13%
32°C
7%
33°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance for August 4 projects a maximum of 30 °C under mainly cloudy skies with showers and a 70–95 % rain probability, aligning closely with the market’s leading 30 °C and 29 °C outcomes. Persistent high humidity, typical of peak summer, limits diurnal warming while cloud cover and convective showers can suppress peak readings by 1–2 °C relative to clear-sky baselines. Regional model consensus clusters around 29–31 °C, with slight downward bias from expected rainfall; historical August maxima average near 31 °C, yet recent wetter patterns have produced cooler daily peaks. Traders appear to weigh these near-term forecast uncertainties most heavily ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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