Forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 3 high will likely fall in the 25–27°C range, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge with modest warm-air advection and partly cloudy skies limiting peak insolation. Minor differences in predicted cloud timing or a weak frontal boundary create the tight spread across leading outcomes, as even small shifts in dew points or wind speed can alter maximum readings by 1–2°C. Historical early-August averages near 23°C provide context, while current ensemble guidance shows low risk of extremes, keeping probabilities clustered and responsive to the next model runs.