Sustained Chinese gray-zone pressure on Taiwan, including regular PLA aircraft sorties into the air defense identification zone and China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, has not escalated to kinetic military action in recent months. Incursion volumes in August 2026 fell to roughly half prior-year levels, while Taiwan has intensified combat readiness drills, Han Kuang exercises, and asymmetric capabilities such as unmanned systems integration. Earlier 2026 summits between Xi Jinping and U.S. leaders temporarily reduced daily activity, and ongoing diplomatic channels ahead of the November APEC meeting continue to favor de-escalation. Internal PLA leadership changes have also complicated large-scale planning timelines. These patterns underpin trader consensus that no military clash will occur before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
7% вероятность
$3,309,599 Объем
$3,309,599 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
7% вероятность
$3,309,599 Объем
$3,309,599 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained Chinese gray-zone pressure on Taiwan, including regular PLA aircraft sorties into the air defense identification zone and China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, has not escalated to kinetic military action in recent months. Incursion volumes in August 2026 fell to roughly half prior-year levels, while Taiwan has intensified combat readiness drills, Han Kuang exercises, and asymmetric capabilities such as unmanned systems integration. Earlier 2026 summits between Xi Jinping and U.S. leaders temporarily reduced daily activity, and ongoing diplomatic channels ahead of the November APEC meeting continue to favor de-escalation. Internal PLA leadership changes have also complicated large-scale planning timelines. These patterns underpin trader consensus that no military clash will occur before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Объем
$3,309,599Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained Chinese gray-zone pressure on Taiwan, including regular PLA aircraft sorties into the air defense identification zone and China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, has not escalated to kinetic military action in recent months. Incursion volumes in August 2026 fell to roughly half prior-year levels, while Taiwan has intensified combat readiness drills, Han Kuang exercises, and asymmetric capabilities such as unmanned systems integration. Earlier 2026 summits between Xi Jinping and U.S. leaders temporarily reduced daily activity, and ongoing diplomatic channels ahead of the November APEC meeting continue to favor de-escalation. Internal PLA leadership changes have also complicated large-scale planning timelines. These patterns underpin trader consensus that no military clash will occur before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$3,309,599Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Sustained Chinese gray-zone pressure on Taiwan, including regular PLA aircraft sorties into the air defense identification zone and China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, has not escalated to kinetic military action in recent months. Incursion volumes in August 2026 fell to roughly half prior-year levels, while Taiwan has intensified combat readiness drills, Han Kuang exercises, and asymmetric capabilities such as unmanned systems integration. Earlier 2026 summits between Xi Jinping and U.S. leaders temporarily reduced daily activity, and ongoing diplomatic channels ahead of the November APEC meeting continue to favor de-escalation. Internal PLA leadership changes have also complicated large-scale planning timelines. These patterns underpin trader consensus that no military clash will occur before the end of 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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